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"Earnings guidance" is a relatively new term that describes an old practice of predicting the future (in this case in regard to business expectations). But new regulations have changed how this information is given to the market. Some companies are now saying they will stop giving guidance to combat the market's focus on the short-term, but could it be because of the potential liabilities the companies face? This article will provide a perspective on this age-old tradition, discuss the good and bad points, and examine why some companies are saying "no more" to earnings guidance.
Earnings Guidance Defined
Earnings guidance is defined as the comments management gives about what it expects its company will do in the future. These comments are also known as "forward-looking statements" because they focus on sales or earnings expectations in light of industry and macroeconomic trends. These comments are given so that investors can use them to evaluate the company's earnings potential. (To read further on earnings, see Everything You Need To Know About Earnings, A Case Study: Earnings Manipulation And The Role Of The Media and Target Prices Vs. Ratings.)
An Age-Old Tradition
Providing forecasts is one of the oldest professions. In previous incarnations, earnings guidance was called the "whisper number". The only difference is that whisper numbers were given to selected analysts so that they could warn their big clients. Fair disclosure laws (known as Regulation Fair Disclosure or Reg FD) made this illegal and companies now have to broadcast their expectations to the world, giving all investors access to this information at the same time. This has been a good development.
The Good: More Information Is Always Better
Earnings guidance serves an important role in the investment decision-making process. Under current regulations, it is the only legal way a company can communicate its expectations to the market. This perspective is important because management knows its business better than anyone else and has more information on which to base its expectations than any number of analysts. Consequently, the most efficient way to communicate management's information to the market is via guidance. In an ideal world, analysts would use this information in combination with their own research to develop earnings forecasts.
The Bad: Management Can Manipulate Expectations
The cynical view is that, because this is not an ideal world, managements use guidance to sway investors. In bull markets some companies have given optimistic forecasts when the market wants momentum stocks with fast-growing earnings per share (EPS). In bear markets companies have tried to lower expectations so that they can "beat the number" during earnings season. It is one of the analyst's jobs to evaluate management expectations and determine if these expectations are too optimistic or too low, which may be an attempt at setting an easier target. Unfortunately, this is something that many analysts forgot to do during the dotcom bubble.
Why Some Companies Stopped Giving Guidance
Claiming that guidance promotes the market's focus on the short term, some companies have said they will stop providing guidance in order to try to combat this obsession with the short term. While this may sound noble, they can't seriously think this will be effective.
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