Moving average convergence divergence (MACD), invented in 1979 by Gerald Appeal, is one of the most popular technical indicators in trading. MACD is appreciated by traders the world over for its simplicity and flexibility because it can be used either as a
trend or
momentum indicator.
Trading
divergence is a popular way to use MACD histogram (which we explain below), but, unfortunately, the divergence trade is not very accurate - it fails more than it succeeds. To explore what may be a more logical method of trading MACD divergence, we look at using the MACD histogram for both trade entry and trade exit signals (instead of only entry), and how currency traders are uniquely positioned to take advantage of such a strategy.
MACD: An Overview
The concept behind MACD is fairly straightforward. Essentially, it calculates the difference between an instrument's 26-day and 12-day
exponential moving averages (EMA). Of the two moving averages that make up MACD, the 12-day EMA, is obviously the faster one, while the 26-day is slower. In the calculation of their values, both moving averages use the closing prices of whatever period is measured. On the MACD chart, a nine-day EMA of MACD itself is plotted as well, and it acts as a trigger for buy and sell decisions. MACD generates a bullish signal when it moves above its own nine-day EMA, and it sends a sell sign when it moves below its nine-day EMA.
The MACD histogram is an elegant visual representation of the difference between MACD and its nine-day EMA. The histogram is positive when MACD is above its nine-day EMA and negative when MACD is below its nine-day EMA. If prices are rising, the histogram grows larger as the speed of the price movement accelerates, and contracts as price movement decelerates. The same principle works in reverse as prices are falling. See Figure 1 for a good example of a MACD histogram in action.
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| Figure 1: MACD histogram. As price action (top part of the screen) accelerates to the downside, the MACD histogram (in the lower part of the screen) makes new lows |
| Source: FXTrek Intellicharts |