The relationships between different financial markets are almost as old as the markets themselves. For example, in many cases when benchmark equities rise, bonds fall. Many traders will watch for correlations like this and try to capitalize on the opportunity. The same types of relationships exist in the global foreign exchange market. Take, for instance, the closely-related tie between the Australian dollar and gold. Due mostly to the fact that Australia remains a major producer of the yellow metal, the correlation is an opportunity that not only exists, but is one that traders on every level can capitalize on. Let's take a look at why this relationship exists and how you can use it to produce solid-gold returns.

Being Productive Is Key
The U.S. dollar/crude oil relationship exists for one simple reason: the commodity is priced in dollars. However, the same cannot be said about the Aussie correlation. The gold/Australian dollar relationship stems from production. Australia is one the largest gold producer in the world. As a result, it is only natural that the their currency follows a similar pattern to gold. With the ebb and flow of production, the exchange rate will follow supply and demand as money exchanges hands between miner and manufacturer.

Capitalizing on the Relationship
Although the macro strategy does work on all levels, it is best suited for portfolios that are set in longer time frames. Traders are not going to see strong correlations on every single day of trading, much like other broader market dynamics. As a result, it's advantageous to cushion the blow of daily volatility and risk through a longer time horizon.

Fundamentally-oriented traders will tend to trade one or both instruments, taking trading cues from the other. These cues can be gathered from a list of topics including:

  1. Commodity Reserve Reports
  2. COT Futures Reports
  3. Australian Economic Developments
  4. Interest Rates
  5. Safe Haven Investing

As a result, these trades tend to be longer than day-trade considerations as the portfolio is looking to capture the overall market tone, rather than just an intraday pop or drop.

Technically, traders tend to find their cues in technical formations with the hope that corresponding correlations will seep into the related market. Whether the formation is in the gold chart or the Aussie chart, it is better to find one solid formation first, rather than looking for both charts to correlate perfectly. An example of this is clearly seen in the chart examples below.

Figure 1
Source: FX Trek Intellicharts
Figure 2
Source: MetaTrader

As shown in Figure 2, with the market in turmoil and investor deleveraging that was "en vogue" in 2008, traders saw an opportunity to jump on the bandwagon as both Aussie and gold experienced a temporary uptick in price. Already knowing that this would be a blow-off top in an otherwise bearish market, the savvy technical investor could visibly see both assets moving in sync. As a result, technically speaking, a short opportunity shone through as the commodity approached the $905.50 figure, which corresponded with the pivotal 0.8500 figure in the FX market. The double top in gold all but ensured further depression in the Australian dollar/U.S. dollar currency pair.

Trying It Out: A Trade Setup
Now let's take a look at a shorter trade setup involving both the Australian dollar and gold.

First, the broad macro picture. Taking a look at Figure 2, we see that gold has taken a hard dive down as investors and traders have deleveraged and sold off riskier assets. Following this move, subsequent consolidation lends to the belief that a turnaround may be lingering in the market. The idea is supported by the likelihood that equity investors will elect to move some money into the safe-haven characteristic of the commodity as global benchmark indexes continue to decline in value.

Figure 3
Source: MetaTrader

We see a similar position developing in the Australian dollar following a spike down to just below the 0.6045 figure, shown in Figure 4 below. At this time, the currency was under extreme pressure as global speculators deemed the Australian dollar a risky currency. Putting these two factors together, portfolio direction is looking to be upward.

Next, we take a look at our charts and apply basic support and resistance techniques. Following our initial trade idea with gold, we first project a textbook channel to our chart as price action has displayed three defining technical points (labeled A, B and C). The gold channel corresponds with a short-term channel developing in the AUD/USD currency pair in Figure 4.

Figure 4
Source: MetaTrader

The combination culminates on Dec. 10, 2008, (Figure 3 Point C). Not only do both assets test the support or lower channel trendline, but we also have a bullish MACD convergence confirming the move higher in the AUD/USD currency pair.

Finally, we place the corresponding entry at the close of the session, 0.6561. The subsequent stop would be placed at the swing low. In this case, that would be the December 5 low of 0.6290, a roughly 271 pip stop. Taking proper risk/reward management into account, we place our target at 0.7103 to give us a 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio. Luckily, the trade takes no longer than a week as the target is triggered on December 18 for a 542 pip profit.

The Bottom Line
Intermarket strategies like the Australian dollar and gold present ample opportunities for the savvy investor and trader. Whether it's to produce a higher profit/loss ratio or increase overall portfolio returns, market correlations are sure to add value to a market participant's repertoire.

Related Articles
  1. Forex Education

    Get To Know The Major Central Banks

    The policies of these banks affect the currency market like nothing else. See what makes them tick.
  2. Forex Education

    Top 7 Questions About Currency Trading Answered

    Whether you're puzzled by pips or curious about carry trades, your queries are answered here.
  3. Chart Advisor

    Pay Attention To These Stock Patterns Playing Out

    The stocks are all moving different types of patterns. A breakout could signal a major price move in the trending direction, or it could reverse the trend.
  4. Chart Advisor

    Now Could Be The Time To Buy IPOs

    There has been lots of hype around the IPO market lately. We'll take a look at whether now is the time to buy.
  5. Technical Indicators

    Using Pivot Points For Predictions

    Learn one of the most common methods of finding support and resistance levels.
  6. Forex Education

    Explaining Uncovered Interest Rate Parity

    Uncovered interest rate parity is when the difference in interest rates between two nations is equal to the expected change in exchange rates.
  7. Forex Education

    Top 6 Most Tradable Currency Pairs

    The most frequently traded currency pair is the euro/U.S. dollar. The euro is the base currency in the pairing, while the dollar is the quote currency.
  8. Chart Advisor

    Watch These Stocks for Breakouts

    These four stocks are moving within price patterns of various size, shape and duration, and are worth watching for a breakout
  9. Forex Fundamentals

    How to Buy Chinese Yuan

    Discover the different options that are available to investors who want to obtain exposure to the Chinese yuan, including ETFs and ETNs.
  10. Chart Advisor

    ChartAdvisor for November 20 2015

    Weekly technical summary of the major U.S. indexes.
  1. What are some of the most common technical indicators that back up Doji patterns?

    The doji candlestick is important enough that Steve Nison devotes an entire chapter to it in his definitive work on candlestick ... Read Full Answer >>
  2. Tame Panic Selling with the Exhausted Selling Model

    The exhausted selling model is a pricing strategy used to identify and trade based off of the price floor of a security. ... Read Full Answer >>
  3. Point and Figure Charting Using Count Analysis

    Count analysis is a means of interpreting point and figure charts to measure vertical price movements. Technical analysts ... Read Full Answer >>
  4. How are double exponential moving averages applied in technical analysis?

    Double exponential moving averages (DEMAS) are commonly used in technical analysis like any other moving average indicator ... Read Full Answer >>
  5. What are the goals of covered interest arbitrage?

    The goals of covered interest arbitrage include enabling investors to trade volatile currency pairs without risk as well ... Read Full Answer >>
  6. What are the alert zones in a Fibonacci retracement?

    The most commonly used Fibonacci retracement alert levels are at 38.2% and 61.8%. A 50% retracement level is also commonly ... Read Full Answer >>

You May Also Like

Hot Definitions
  1. Black Friday

    1. A day of stock market catastrophe. Originally, September 24, 1869, was deemed Black Friday. The crash was sparked by gold ...
  2. Turkey

    Slang for an investment that yields disappointing results or turns out worse than expected. Failed business deals, securities ...
  3. Barefoot Pilgrim

    A slang term for an unsophisticated investor who loses all of his or her wealth by trading equities in the stock market. ...
  4. Quick Ratio

    The quick ratio is an indicator of a company’s short-term liquidity. The quick ratio measures a company’s ability to meet ...
  5. Black Tuesday

    October 29, 1929, when the DJIA fell 12% - one of the largest one-day drops in stock market history. More than 16 million ...
  6. Black Monday

    October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost almost 22% in a single day. That event marked the beginning ...
Trading Center