Rate of change (ROC) does stand alone as an important indicator used by many technicians interested in market momentum. ROC has a horizontal median called equilibrium. It is this median that tells us everything we need to know about rate of change.

The normal time frame for ROC measurement is 10 days. The ratio to build the ROC indicator is as follows:

Rate of Change = 100 (Y/Yx)

"Y" represents the most recent closing price, and Yx represents the closing price a specific number of days ago. So, if the price of a stock closes higher today than it did 10 days ago, the ROC value point will be above the equilibrium, thus indicating to chartists that prices are rising in that particular issue. Conversely, if the price in today's session closes lower than it did 10 trading days ago, the value point will be below the equilibrium, indicating that prices are falling off. It is safe to say that if the ROC is rising, it gives a short-term bullish signal, and a bearish sign would have the ROC falling. Chartists pay great attention to the time period in the calculation of ROC. Long-term views of the market or a specific sector or stock, will use perhaps a 26- to 52-week time period for Yx and a shorter view would use 10 days to six months or so.

Chart Created with Tradestation

As you can see in this chart of Exxon Mobil the terrible events of Sept 11, 2001, saw the ROC fall off dramatically over the last five trading sessions shown on this chart and rallying into the strong market Sept 24, 2001. You can see that the red line turned up sharply that day as the price of XOM jumped over $2. You can see that for the most part, the preceding summer months had Exxon Mobil falling off slightly in price from a level of about $47 in early June to $41 on Sept 10, and the ROC indicator traded below the median line for almost the entire three-month period.




Another point I would like to make about this chart is the bullish move at the end of the first week in April, when the stock price jumped from $38 to  between $44 and $45 by the end of the month.

Chart Created with Tradestation

The second chart is that of Nortel Networks and shows the bearish trend from Sept 2000 through the next 12 months. There were a number of bullish signals over this same period of time that, for the most part, would have been acted upon by the short-term traders, but it is fairly safe to say that long-term investors would have stayed away from NT during this period of time. The fundamentals of the company coupled with the bearish indicators saw the "smart money" head for the sidelines. As you can see by the chart, there was not a strong bullish sign since the brief tech breakout in Apr 2001 that lasted just long enough to tease investors into thinking that the bear market for tech issues was over.

New technicians as well as veterans should look very closely at ROC when looking for plus/minus moves in indexes and stock issues alike, and use a number of different time spans to reconfirm your findings.

by Investopedia Staff, (Contact Author | Biography)

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