What is the chaos theory?

By Bob Schneider AAA
A:

The chaos theory is a complicated and disputed mathematical theory that seeks to explain the effect of seemingly insignificant factors. The chaos theory name originates from the idea that the theory can give an explanation for chaotic or random occurrences. The first real experiment in the chaos theory was done in 1960 by a meteorologist, Edward Lorenz. He was working with a system of equations to predict what the weather would likely be.

In 1961, he wanted to recreate a past weather sequence, but he began the sequence mid-way and printed out only the first three decimal places instead of the full six. This radically changed the sequence, which could reasonably be assumed to closely mirror the original sequence with only the slight change of three decimal places. However, Lorenz proved that seemingly insignificant factors can have a huge effect on the overall outcome. The chaos theory explores the effects of small occurrences dramatically affecting the outcomes of seemingly unrelated events.

The chaos theory has been applied to many scientific areas, including finance. In finance, the Chaos theory has been used to argue that price is the last thing to change for a security. Using the chaos theory, a change in price can be determined through mathematical predictions of the following factors: a trader's personal motivations (such as doubt, desire or hope that are nonlinear and complex), changes in volume, acceleration of changes and momentum behind the changes. The application of the chaos theory to finance remains controversial.

For more information on stock theories see The Basics Of Game Theory and Modern Portfolio Theory: An Overview.

This question was answered by Bob Schneider.

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