Equity Investments - Developing Input Estimates Used in the DDM

To determine a company's stock price using the DDM the following inputs must be available:

Required Rate of Return
This return can be derived from the CAPM model (Rcs = Rf + Bcs(Rmarket - Rf)

2. Expected Growth Rate
The expected growth rate can be derived from both the retention rate (1-payout rate) and the company's ROE. (g = (retention rate)(ROE))

3. Dividend
To determine the dividend to be used in the DDM, last year's dividend must first be calculated as the dividend in the DDM is next year's dividend. Given a company's earnings last year as well as the company's payout ratio, last year's dividend can be calculated. Using the growth rate derived above, next year's dividend can be determined.

4. Future Price
The future price for the company can be derived with next year's dividend divided by the difference in the company's required rate of return and its growth rate.

Example: Calculate the required inputs to be used in the DDM
Newco's annual EPS last year was $1.00. The company maintained its annual dividend payout ratio of 40% and ROE of 16%. Newco's beta is 1.3. Given a risk-free rate of 4% and an expected return on the market of 18%, determine Newco's required rate of return, expected growth rate and next year's dividend and price?


Required rate of return
RNewco= 4% + 1.3(18% - 4%) = 22.2%

Expected growth rate
Retention rate = (1 - payout rate) = (1 - 0.40) = 0.60
gNewco = (0.60)(0.16) = 0.096 or 9.6%

D1 = D0(1+g) = $1.00(1+.096) = $1.096

Future price
P1 = D1/(r - g) = $1.096/(22.2% - 9.6%) = $8.70

Earnings Analysis
Related Articles
  1. Personal Finance

    How To Choose A Financial Advisor

    Many advisors display similar skillsets that can make distinguishing between them difficult. The following guidelines can help you better understand their qualifications and services.
  2. Investing

    Asset Manager Ethics: Investment Process and Actions

    Managers, in developing their investment process, need to determine some “general rules” that make it meaningful. We offer six.
  3. Professionals

    Career Advice: Financial Analyst Vs. Investment Banker

    Read an in-depth comparison about working as a Financial Analyst vs. working as an Investment Banker, two highly prestigious business careers.
  4. Professionals

    Advisors: Which Certifications Are Essential?

    The right advisor credentials can make all the difference, but wading through some 100 certifications can be a challenge. Here's some help.
  5. Investing Basics

    Asset Manager Ethics: Valuation Is A Tricky Business

    Asset managers must accurately represent all of a clients assets in the client portfolio. This can be tricky for unique and hard-to-value assets.
  6. Personal Finance

    Top 10 Most Valuable Sports Teams in 2015

    Cleats, pads and profits: we take a look at the top 10 most valuable sports teams in the world.
  7. Professionals

    Chinese Slowdown Affects Iron Ore Market

    The Chinese economy's ongoing slowdown is having a major impact on iron ore demand.
  8. Personal Finance

    Invest in Costco? First Understand Its Balance Sheet

    A strong balance sheet sets a company apart and boosts investor confidence. How healthy is Costco based on an analysis of its balance sheets from the last two years?
  9. Investing Basics

    Brokers and RIAs: One and the Same?

    Brokers and registered investment advisors have some key differences. Here's what you need to know.
  10. Professionals

    DCF Vs. Comparables: Which One To Use

    DCF and Comparables models are widely used in equity valuation. We explain the pros and cons of each method.
  1. Personal Financial Advisor

    Professionals who help individuals manage their finances by providing ...
  2. CFA Institute

    Formerly known as the Association for Investment Management and ...
  3. Chartered Financial Analyst - CFA

    A professional designation given by the CFA Institute (formerly ...
  4. Security Analyst

    A financial professional who studies various industries and companies, ...
  1. What are the differences between a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified ...

    The differences between a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP) are many, but comes down ... Read Full Answer >>
  2. How do I become a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA)?

    According to the CFA Institute, a person who holds a CFA charter is not a chartered financial analyst. The CFA Institute ... Read Full Answer >>
  3. What types of positions might a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) hold?

    The types of positions that a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) is likely to hold include any position that deals with large ... Read Full Answer >>
  4. Who benefits the most from prepaid expenses?

    Prepaid expenses benefit both businesses and individuals. Prepaid expenses are the types of expenses that are bought or paid ... Read Full Answer >>
  5. If I am looking to get an Investment Banking job. What education do employers prefer? ...

    If you are looking specifically for an investment banking position, an MBA may be marginally preferable over the CFA. The ... Read Full Answer >>
  6. Can I still pass the CFA Level I if I do poorly in the ethics section?

    You may still pass the Chartered Financial Analysis (CFA) Level I even if you fare poorly in the ethics section, but don't ... Read Full Answer >>
Hot Definitions
  1. Gross Profit

    A company's total revenue (equivalent to total sales) minus the cost of goods sold. Gross profit is the profit a company ...
  2. Revenue

    The amount of money that a company actually receives during a specific period, including discounts and deductions for returned ...
  3. Normal Profit

    An economic condition occurring when the difference between a firm’s total revenue and total cost is equal to zero.
  4. Operating Cost

    Expenses associated with the maintenance and administration of a business on a day-to-day basis.
  5. Cost Of Funds

    The interest rate paid by financial institutions for the funds that they deploy in their business. The cost of funds is one ...
  6. Cost Accounting

    A type of accounting process that aims to capture a company's costs of production by assessing the input costs of each step ...
Trading Center
You are using adblocking software

Want access to all of Investopedia? Add us to your “whitelist”
so you'll never miss a feature!