Equity Investments - The Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Value of a Preferred Stock
Unlike common equity, preferred stocks pay a fixed dividend. As such, the value of a preferred stock can be calculated using the dividend discount model. The value of the preferred stock is essentially the present value of the dividend in perpetuity, where k is the required return.

Formula 13.1

Value of preferred stock

Example: Calculating the value of a preferred stock
Assume that Newco's preferred stock pays out to an investor an annual dividend of $8 per share. Given a rate of return of 10%, what is the value of Newco's preferred stock?

Answer:
Value of Newco's preferred stock = ($5/0.10) = $50

Value of a Common Stock
Much like a preferred stock, holders of common stock can also receive dividends. However, dividends on common stock are not guaranteed, nor are they a fixed amount from year-to-year. As such, we can value common stock using dividends over various time horizons.

1. One-year Holding period
Consider a one-year holding period, in this time frame, an investor will receive a dividend and the price of the common stock at the end of the one year, both discounted back by the rate of return on the common equity.

Keeping this in mind, we can calculate the value of the common stock as follows:

Formula 13.2

Common Stock = Dividend + Price at the end of the year
                                 (1+k)1            (1+k)1

Example: Calculate the value of a stock with a 1-year holding period
Newco expects to pay its shareholders common equity, $0.25 per share this year. The investor anticipates Newco's stock will close the year at $30 per share. Given a rate of return of 10%, what is the value of Newco's common stock?

Answer:
Value of Newco's common stock = $0.25 + $30 = $27.50 per share
                                                               (1.10)   (1.10)

2. Multiple-year holding period
Given investors can hold a common stock for over a year, it is useful to value a stock over the investor's expected holding period. In this case, the DDM model can be used.


Formula 13.3

Value of common equity



Example: Calculate the value of a stock with a multiple-year holdingperiod
An investor plans to hold Newco's stock for 2 years. Newco expects to pay its shareholders common equity, $0.25 per share over the next two years. The investor anticipates Newco's stock will close the end of that time period at $40 per share. Given a rate of return of 10%, what is the value of Newco's common stock at the end of the two-year time period?

Answer:
Value of Newco's common stock = $0.25 + $0.25 + $40 = $33.49
                                                               (1.10)1  (1.10)2  (1.10)2

3. Infinite Period DDM
To value a common stock using the infinite period DDM, the calculation is simplified much like it is when valuing a preferred stock with infinite dividends.

Formula 13.4




Where k = rate of return, g = growth rate



Example: Calculate the value of common stock with infinite dividends
Newco paid a $0.25 annual dividend in 2004 and expects to pay $0.265 in 2005. Assuming a 6% growth rate and a required rate of return of 10%, calculate the value of Newco's stock.

Answer:
Value of Newco's common stock = $0.265 = $6.63
                                                            (0.10 - 0.06)

Valuing the Common Stock of Companies with Supernormal Growth
When valuing a common stock of a company which is experiencing significant growth, we take a similar approach to valuing the common stock with a multi-year holding period. The difference in the approaches is related to the dividend. A multi-year holding period approach assumes a stable dividend, whereas the dividend changes given the supernormal growth in this approach.

Formula 13.5


Example: Calculate the value of common stock with temporary supernormal growth
An investor plans to hold Newco's stock for 3 years. In that time period, Newco plans to grow at a rate of 6% in the first two years and 3% thereafter. Newco's last dividend was $0.25. Given a rate of return of 10%, what is the value of Newco's common stock at the end of the three-year time period?

Answer:
To begin, the dividend in each time period must be calculated [D = D0(1+g)]

D1 = (0.25)(1.06) = 0.265
D2 = (0.265)(1.06) = 0.281
D3 = (0.281)(1.03) = 0.289

Since we expect the dividend to grow indefinitely in year 3 and on, the present value of the stock price in year 3 is calculated as follows:

P3 = 0.289 = 4.133
      (0.10-0.03)

The value of Newco's common stock is as follows:

Newco'scs = $0.265 + $0.281 + 0.289 + $4.133 = $3.80
                       (1.10)1     (1.10)2   (1.10)3  (1.10)3

Using the DDM to Develop an Earnings Multiplier Model
Developing the earnings multiplier using the DDM begins with the basic determinant of price. Recall, to determine the price of a stock using the DDM, the infinite dividend is divided by the required return minus the growth rate as follows:

To determine the price to earnings multiple, the price of the stock is simply divided by the earnings per share of the stock as follows:

Formula 13.6


Example: Determining a company's price-to-earnings ratio using the DDM
With Newco's $0.25 dividend payout, an EPS of $1.00, calculate the stock's P/E ratio assuming 10% required return and 5% growth.

Answer:
P/E ratio = 0.25/1.00 = 5%
                  (0.10-0.05)

Look Out!

In terms of changes in the dividend, the required return and the growth rate affect the DDM. Changes in these variables will also affect the stock's P/E ratio.

DDM and the Earnings Multiplier
Related Articles
  1. Personal Finance

    Invest in Costco? First Understand Its Balance Sheet

    A strong balance sheet sets a company apart and boosts investor confidence. How healthy is Costco based on an analysis of its balance sheets from the last two years?
  2. Investing Basics

    Brokers and RIAs: One and the Same?

    Brokers and registered investment advisors have some key differences. Here's what you need to know.
  3. Professionals

    DCF Vs. Comparables: Which One To Use

    DCF and Comparables models are widely used in equity valuation. We explain the pros and cons of each method.
  4. Professionals

    How To Make Money Using Tobin's Q Ratio

    Although it seems simple, Tobin's Q Ratio is more complex than it appears. We explore some of its main strengths and weaknesses.
  5. Taxes

    3 Secrets You Didn't Know About Estate Planning

    Every advisor and saver needs to know these three estate planning secrets.
  6. Professionals

    Cash Flow Is King: How to Keep it Running

    Why is cash flow so important, and what steps can a business take to improve it?
  7. Entrepreneurship

    10 Ways to Nurse Cash Flow in Healthcare

    Running a business in healthcare? You might want to rethink cash flow management practices.
  8. Professionals

    How to Help Clients with Cash Flow Issues

    Sometimes your spending gets out of hand or income has a hiccup. Here's how financial advisors can help clients who have cash flow issues.
  9. Professionals

    How to Improve Your Cash Flow in Manufacturing

    Here are 10 ways to to improve a manufacturer's cash flow.
  10. Professionals

    10 Ways to Improve Cash Flow in Construction

    Improving cash flow in construction requires some sector-specific strategies.
RELATED TERMS
  1. Personal Financial Advisor

    Professionals who help individuals manage their finances by providing ...
  2. CFA Institute

    Formerly known as the Association for Investment Management and ...
  3. Chartered Financial Analyst - CFA

    A professional designation given by the CFA Institute (formerly ...
  4. Security Analyst

    A financial professional who studies various industries and companies, ...
RELATED FAQS
  1. What are the differences between a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified ...

    The differences between a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP) are many, but comes down ... Read Full Answer >>
  2. How do I become a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA)?

    According to the CFA Institute, a person who holds a CFA charter is not a chartered financial analyst. The CFA Institute ... Read Full Answer >>
  3. What types of positions might a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) hold?

    The types of positions that a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) is likely to hold include any position that deals with large ... Read Full Answer >>
  4. Who benefits the most from prepaid expenses?

    Prepaid expenses benefit both businesses and individuals. Prepaid expenses are the types of expenses that are bought or paid ... Read Full Answer >>
  5. If I am looking to get an Investment Banking job. What education do employers prefer? ...

    If you are looking specifically for an investment banking position, an MBA may be marginally preferable over the CFA. The ... Read Full Answer >>
  6. Can I still pass the CFA Level I if I do poorly in the ethics section?

    You may still pass the Chartered Financial Analysis (CFA) Level I even if you fare poorly in the ethics section, but don't ... Read Full Answer >>
Trading Center
×

You are using adblocking software

Want access to all of Investopedia? Add us to your “whitelist”
so you'll never miss a feature!