- Dividend Growth Models - Equity valuation is a subject of great depth and complexity. Valuation entails understanding a business; forecasting its performance, selecting the appropriate valuation model; converting such forecasting to a valuation and making a recommendation whether or not to purchase. Valuation models are as nuanced as the companies to which their application would appear to be best suited. For the purpose of the CFP® examination, candidates are expected to demonstrate proficiency in the basic mechanics and application of the dividend discount model which utilizes a firm's cost of capital to discount dividends to arrive at an approximate intrinsic value of the company.
- Constant (Gordon) Dividend Growth Model:
Where: P=security\'s price; D=dividend payout ratio; k=required rate of return (derived from the capital asset pricing model; g=dividends\' expected growth rate.
The model's assumptions are that: (i) the dividend growth rate is constant; the growth rate cannot equal or exceed the required rate of return; the investor's required rate of return is both known and constant. In practice, a company's earnings and growth rates are not known and not constant.
- Multi-stage Dividend Discount Models:
P=D(1+g)/(1+k) + D(1+g)(1+g)/(1+r)(k-g)
Where:P=security\'s price; D=dividend payout ratio; g=dividends\' expected growth rate; k=required rate of return.
- Constant (Gordon) Dividend Growth Model:
Multistage models can accommodate any number of patterns of future streams of expected dividends. Spreadsheets enable the analyst to build and analyze many permutations on such models. However, care must be taken when choosing the model's inputs, lest the results become meaningless.Spreadsheets are susceptible to data errors which can result in erroneous valuations.
- Ratio Analysis - ratio analysis is also discussed in Chapter 7 "Portfolio Development and Analysis", but more from the standpoint of evaluating the company's financial health. The ratios to be discussed below, analysts use as alternative valuation measures to the dividend discount models and fall under the rubric of market-based valuation tools.
- Price/Earnings: price per share/earnings per share. This is a relative valuation model.
- Price/Free Cash Flow (FCF): cash flow is less susceptible to manipulation than earnings, when the appeal of this metric.
- Price/Sales: how much an investor is paying for sales revenue. A drawback to this ratio is that this considers price as a multiple of top line growth, whereas net income (bottom line growth) may be negative.
- Price/Earnings/Growth (PEG): used to compare firms with different growth rates. PEG ratios can be used to determine possible value opportunities for analysts.
- Book Value - The company's equity after subtracting liabilities. Book value is an inaccurate measure of a company's value as assets are recorded at historical cost on the company's balance sheet and generally accepted accounting principles may produce different company valuations, depending on the pronouncements that the company follows.
- Liquidation Value - The value of the business once discontinued when assets are sold off. The actual value may be a distressed one or one in which the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. The process can be quite subjective.
Sample Questions 1 - 5
InvestingDon't be overwhelmed by the many valuation techniques out there - knowing a few characteristics about a company will help you pick the best one.
InvestingThere is no single valuation tactic that works in every situation. But a company’s characteristics provide clues to investors about the best method to use.
Personal FinanceDCF and Comparables models are widely used in equity valuation. We explain the pros and cons of each method.
InvestingThe supernormal growth model values a stock that’s expected to have higher than normal growth in dividend payments for some period in the future.
InvestingHow can you use the dividend discount model to estimate the value the common stock of Microsoft?
InvestingThe relatively modest amount of time it takes to build these models can pay for itself by leading you to better investment decisions.
InvestingThe Gordon growth model is used to calculate the intrinsic value of a stock today, based on the stock’s expected future dividends. It is widely used by investors and analysts to compare the predicted ...
InvestingIf these calculations are off, it could drastically change the value of the shares.
InvestingA financial model is a representation of some aspects of a firm or given security. It uses historical numbers to create calculations that inform financial recommendations or predict future financial ...
InvestingThe dividend discount model is a way of applying net present value analysis to estimate the future dividends a stock will pay. Those dividends are then discounted back to their present value. ...