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Forex pairs in this Article » EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair had a back and forth session on Tuesday, essentially going nowhere by the time the markets closed. That being the case, the market seems like it's essentially waiting on something. This is simply because the Federal Reserve is releasing its minutes coming at 2:30 PM later today New York time. That being the case, my suspicion is that the markets will simply do nothing between now and then, but most certainly will react violently to that announcement.

If the Federal Reserve looks like it's ready to start tapering off of quantitative easing fairly soon, expect that to be good for the US dollar, and send this pair lower. I suspect that there is a lot of choppiness below, simply because there are a lot of potential minor support levels. With that being the case, it won't necessarily be the easiest trade, but it's very possible that we would grind all the way down to the 1.28 handle, as it is the base of a descending triangle. The top of the descending triangle is the downtrend line just above current pricing that you see on the chart, and needless to say that is a significant resistance level.

However, the Federal Reserve could blink in the face of market disapproval

The Federal Reserve has been known to line the pockets of bankers and traders before, so if they blink and face of a potential selloff in the stock markets, we could see the markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve is going to taper off much later, and that of course would be Dollar negative. If that's the case, we will more than likely break above the downtrend line negating the descending triangle, and showing real Euro strength.

If that happens, I believe that at point in time the Euro will break out, we will more than likely head several hundred pips higher. However, you can place a trade now simply because you just do not know what's going to happen between now and then, and guessing is without a doubt one of the easiest ways to lose money in this market.

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