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Forex pairs in this Article » USD/JPY

USD/JPY Signal Update

Thursday's signals were not triggered and expired.

Today’s USD/JPY Signals

Risk 0.25% on any trade.

Entry should be made before 8am tomorrow morning London time

Long Trade 1

Enter long at the next bar break of an hourly pin or strong outside bar rejecting and closing above both of 102.21 and the lower bullish channel trend line. If both these levels are not touched and rejected by the same hourly bar, or if an hourly bar closes more than a few pips below both of these levels, the trade is immediately invalidated and should not be taken.

Stop loss at the local swing low or 101.88, depending upon how close the entry is to 102.21. If the entry is very close, then the lower of the two should definitely be used.

Take profit on 75% of the position at 102.64, move the stop loss to break even, and take half again at 103.00 and then half again at 103.37, leaving the rest to ride.

Long Trade 2

If the price touches 101.65 enter long with a limit order there.

The initial stop loss should be 101.20 but could be moved up if the price moves right possibly with a trailing stop.

Take 75% of the position as profit at 102.15 and move the stop loss to break even. Take half again at 103.00 and then half again at 103.37, leaving the rest to ride.

USD/JPY Analysis

No major data is expected today on either the JPY and USD, therefore it might well be a quiet day.

The broad outlook shows that this pair, which has been in a strong uptrend, made a 5-year high on Friday, since when it has fallen. However the price is still contained within a long-term bullish channel which has held for about a month now:

USDJPY Signal 121613

As the channel has held, I am more comfortable looking for longs. This is not provided as a signal but be aware that the level of 103.37 is confluent with both of the previous tops in the double top and today's daily pivot point, it also acted as minor support late last week. This may be a natural barrier and the beginning of a strong fresh fall in price.

The uptrend remains technically healthy as long as the lower bullish channel trend line holds, which should be provided by the support level just below it if necessary.

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