As the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by another 25bp in February, and we may have an opportunity to short the AUD/NZD later today as the pair gives back the advance from the end of the previous week. However, I would like to see a small pull back to sell the pair around the 10-Day SMA (1.2894), and will have a fairly tight stop at the 20-Day SMA (1.2934) as the bearish divergence in the relative strength index continues to pan out. As I expect former support around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2011 high to low (1.2880-1.2900) to act as new resistance, I will keep an open target for the time being, but we may see the exchange rate fall back towards the 23.6% Fib around 1.2650-60 as price action breaks out of the narrow range carried over from earlier this year.