OPEN



HIGH



LOW



LAST PRICE



CHANGE(%)



USDOLLAR Index



10151.73



10160.96



10133.86



10143.41



-0.10341



EURUSD Curncy



1.3567



1.3594



1.3541



1.3573



0.044225



GBPUSD Curncy



1.5801



1.5875



1.5775



1.5866



0.411366



USDJPY Curncy



91.08



91.42



90.75



91.39



0.34036



AUDUSD Curncy



1.0418



1.0451



1.038



1.044



0.211173



Prices were taken at 20:30 GMT.

The US Non-farm Payrolls report will dominate market price action for tomorrow, and our research shows that price moves may be significant regardless of outcome. The consensus forecast for January's NFP gain has been raised to 165k from a lower 155k predicted last week. This indicates that investors have gained more confidence in the US economy as personal income and consumption are expanding, and house and job markets gradually improve. In the next session, NFP will weigh on all the pairs related to the greenback based on traders' intuition. But the big question is - how much and in what way will the report influence short-term moves?

The following table summarizes the Non-farm Payrolls numbers in 2012 and one-minute changes for the Dollar Index after reports were released. The average change for the 11 samples is 7.6 points, which significantly differs from the average one-minute change in 2012 - effectively zero. More specifically, the Dollar Index rose by an average of 10 points when the NFP reading exceeded estimations. Even when reports came worse than forecast, the Index still moved up by 4 points on average. That means no matter what the Non-farm Payroll figure will be tomorrow, it may push the US Dollar Index slightly higher.

Non-farm Payrolls in 2012 and the one-minute change for the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index



Date



Time



Survey



Actual



Better-Than- Expected



Total Ticks



Average Open



Average Close



Change



1/6/2012



13:30:00



156K



200K



Y



10



9994.5



9999



4.5



2/3/2012



13:30:00



146K



243K



Y



11



9722.5



9722.5



0



3/9/2012



13:30:00



212K



227K



Y



10



9920



9928



8



4/6/2012



12:30:00



208K



120K



N



12



10035



10035



0



5/4/2012



12:30:00



158K



115K



N



11



9915



9916.5



1.5



6/1/2012



12:30:00



149K



69K



N



10



10281.5



10294



12.5



8/3/2012



12:30:00



101K



163K



Y



11



10049



10065.5



16.5



9/7/2012



13:30:00



128K



96K



N



3



9918.5



9920



1.5



11/2/2012



12:30:00



122K



171K



Y



9



9946.5



9960



13.5



12/7/2012



13:30:00



86K



146K



Y



25



9991



10009



18



(NFP on10/5/2012 is not included due to missing records of one-minute data in Dollar Index)

If the payrolls reading beats expectations, the past year shows we can anticipate a 10 point gain in the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index in the following minute of trading.

Economic Calendar



Date



Time



Currency



Event



Importance



Forecast



Previous



Fri Feb 1



13:30



forex_us_dollar_index_nonfarm_payrolls_body_usd.png, Better-than-Expected NFPs Boost the Dollar Index by 10 PointsUSD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (JAN)



High



155K



155K



13:30



forex_us_dollar_index_nonfarm_payrolls_body_usd_1.png, Better-than-Expected NFPs Boost the Dollar Index by 10 PointsUSD Unemployment Rate (JAN)



High



7.8%



7.8%



15:00



forex_us_dollar_index_nonfarm_payrolls_body_usd_2.png, Better-than-Expected NFPs Boost the Dollar Index by 10 PointsUSD ISM Manufacturing (JAN)



High



50.5



50.7





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