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Forex pairs in this Article » EUR/USD
Talking Points

  • EURUSD struggles below key technical resistance 1.3767
  • Weekly opening range support break shifts scalp bias to the short-side
  • Event risk on tap from Eurozone & US heading into month-end
EURUSD Daily Chart

Forex_EURUSD_Fails_at_Key_Resistance-_Short_Scalps_Favored_Sub_1.37_body_Picture_2.png, EURUSD Fails at Key Resistance- Short Scalps Favored Sub 1.37Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • EURUSD reacts to key Fibonacci resistance at 1.3767
  • Daily RSI failure to mount 60 / Support trigger break – bearish
  • Weekly opening range support break- bearish
  • Near-term support 1.3660- Break targets objectives at 1.3590/1.3613, 1.3515 & 1.3457/76
  • Breach above 1.3767 resistance (bearish invalidation) targets 1.38, 1.3830 & 1.3895
  • Key Events Ahead: German Inflation & Employment, Eurozone Consumer Confidence& US Durable Goods tomorrow, Eurozone Unemployment & US GDP data on Friday
EURUSD Scalp Chart

Forex_EURUSD_Fails_at_Key_Resistance-_Short_Scalps_Favored_Sub_1.37_body_Picture_1.png, EURUSD Fails at Key Resistance- Short Scalps Favored Sub 1.37Notes: An outside reversal day on February 6th shifted our focus to the topside in the EURUSD with the pair completing a 100% extension of the advance off the February low at 1.3767. The euro has since traded in a tight range below this mark with daily RSI failing to hold above the 60-threshold before breaking a support trigger dating back to the January low.

The pair has now made a weekly opening range break to the short-side just below key resistance at 1.3767. Our immediate focus is lower on the pair while below 1.3707 with only a breach above 1.3767 warranting long-side exposure. The euro came into an important support zone today defined by the 38.2% retracement of the February advance at 1.3660 and we’ll let intra-day RSI reset to offer more favorable short triggers. With time cycle analysis also turning heavy here, we’ll look to sell rallies / breaks of support while below the weekly range low.

It’s important to remain prudent heading into the close of the week with end-of-month flows and key data prints later this week from the Euro zone & the US likely to fuel added volatility.Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Resistance Target 1

30min

1.3684/89

50% Retracement / 61.8% Ext

Resistance Target 2

30min

1.3707

Weekly ORL

Resistance Target 3

30min

1.3733

61.8% Retracement / Feb 19th Close

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.3767

100% Extension / Weekly ORH

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

1.3800/03

100% Extension / 78.6% Retrace / 2013 Close High

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

1.3830

61.8% Retrace / 2008 TL Resistance

Break Target 3

30min

1.3849

61.8% Fib Extension

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

1.3892/95

2013 High / 1.618% Fib Extension

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.3659/64

38.2% Retrace / 50% Fib Extension

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

1.3620/24

Nov High / 100DMA / 50% Retracement

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

1.3589

61.8% Retracement

Break Target 3

30min

1.3561

February 12th Swing Low / Soft Support

Break Target 4

30min

1.3539

78.6% Retracement

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min

1.3515

61.8% Fibonacci Extension

Average True Range

Daily (20)

72

Profit Targets 15-18pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

  • EURJPY Rally at Risk Sub 141- Weekly Opening Range in Focus
  • USDCAD Reversal Underway- Long Scalps Favored Above 1.10
  • GBPAUD Weekly Range in Focus- Bullish Scalp Bias at Risk Sub 1.86
  • GBPCAD Challenging Feb Range High- Scalp Bias Bullish Above 1.8037
  • AUDNZD Target Key Resistance- Bullish Scalp Bias at Risk Sub 1.09


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