Filed Under:
Forex pairs in this Article » GBP/USD, AUD/USD
The British Pound appears vulnerable to renewed selling as the Bank of England cuts the outlook for GDP growth in its quarterly Inflation Report.

Talking Points

  • Pound May Fall as Bank of England Downgrades Economic Growth Forecast
  • Australian Dollar Scores as Consumer Confidence Jumps Most in 17 Months
The Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report is in focus in European hours. The document will serve to guide monetary policy expectations for the next three months and bets on a downward revision in its economic growth outlook have been a formidable driver of British Pound selling recently. A validation of these bets may help to cement BOE perceptions as firmly anchored on the dovish side of the spectrum and push Sterling lower still.

The central bank alluded to growing concerns about an inflation pickup in the statement accompanying last week's rate decision and will need to make the case for maintaining an easy policy setting regardless, so an offsetting GDP forecast reduction seems reasonable. Otherwise, Sterling may find itself with a significant catalyst for a correction higher. We continue to hold short GBPUSD for now.

The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, adding as much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts after February's Westpac Consumer Confidence gauge jumped 7.7 percent from the prior month, posting the largest increase since September 2011. The outlook weighed against RBA interest rate cut expectations, with data from Credit Suisse showing investors now see a 40 percent probability of a 25bps reduction at the March meeting compared with 55 percent yesterday.

Asia Session:

GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
23:30
AUD
Westpac Consumer Confidence (FEB)
7.7%
-
0.6%
23:30
AUD
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (FEB)
108.3
-
100.6
23:50
JPY
Domestic CGPI (MoM) (JAN)
0.4%
0.2%
0.2% (R-)
23:50
JPY
Domestic CGPI (YoY) (JAN)
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.7% (R-)
23:50
JPY
Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (DEC)
1.4%
0.7%
-0.4% (R-)
2:00
USD
US President Obama Gives State of the Union Address
-
-
-
Euro Session:

GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP/ACT
PREV
IMPACT
7:00
EUR
German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (JAN)
0.3% (A)
0.0%
Low
7:00
EUR
German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (JAN)
2.3% (A)
3.2%
Low
8:15
CHF
Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JAN)
-0.1% (A)
0.1%
Low
8:15
CHF
Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JAN)
0.8% (A)
1.0%
Low
10:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Industrial Production (YoY) (DEC)
-2.3%
-3.7%
Medium
10:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Industrial Production (MoM) (DEC)
0.2%
-0.3%
Medium
10:00
EUR
Italy Sells 2015, 2017, 2026 and 2040 Bonds
-
-
Medium
10:30
GBP
Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
-
-
High
Critical Levels

CCY
SUPPORT
RESISTANCE
EURUSD
1.3387
1.3499
GBPUSD
1.5600
1.5698
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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