Filed Under:
Talking Points

  • EUR/USD closing in on important support level
  • USD/JPY hovering above key support
  • Cycle turn window in GBP/USD today
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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_Jan_30_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Big Test for the EuroCharts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY remains in consolidation mode above 38% retracement of the October to January advance near 102.00
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the exchange rate while below 103.75
  • The 102.00 area remains a key downside pivot with weakness below needed to signal the start of another leg lower in USD/JPY
  • A cycle turn window is seen on Friday/Monday
  • Only a close over the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at 103.75 would turn us positive on the rate
USD/JPY Strategy: We like the short side while below 103.75.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

101.55

*102.00

102.50

103.40

*103.75

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

PT_Jan_30_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Big Test for the EuroCharts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD has come under steady downside pressure since failing at the1.6660 200% extension of the October/November late last week
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Cable while above the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.6410
  • The 1.6660 is now a clear near-term upside pivot with traction above needed to re-instill upside momentum and expose a key Fibonacci/Gann attraction near 1.6730
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen over the next day or so
  • Only a daily close below 1.6410 would turn us negative on Cable
GBP/USD Strategy: We like the long side while over 1.6410.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

1.6310

*1.6410

1.6485

1.6540

*1.6660

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

PT_Jan_30_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Big Test for the EuroThe cyclical picture looks to be turning negative once again for EUR/USD. Following repeated failures to close above a key Gann angle line earlier in the week the rate has begun to show renewed signs of weakness with the Euro falling below 1.3600 earlier today. A key level for us going forward is the 3rd square root relationship of 2013 high at 1.3540. A close below this level is required to confirm that a new leg lower is indeed underway. If the exchange rate fails to move below this key pivot within the next few days it will cast some doubt on the broader negative cyclical view. A move back over1.3700 would warn that our timing is off, but only traction above 1.3775 turns the outlook positive.

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