Filed Under:
Talking Points

  • AUD/USD cyclical picture turning more positive in the next few days
  • EUR/USD has an important turn window at the end of the week
  • USD/CHF falters at key Gann resistance
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Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD

PT_NOV_12_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Low in AUD/USD Later This Week?In yesterday’s Price & Time (link) we highlighted the cyclical importance of the end of the week (and early next week) in the Euro. This timeframe looks like it could have some significance for a few other pairs as well. AUD/USD in particular looks vulnerable to a reversal around the same time as several short term unrelated cyclical methods converge Thursday & Friday. A low of some kind is favored in the exchange rate during this time with focus for the moment on a Gann support zone between .9260 and .9220. We will be closely monitoring sentiment via the DSI (Daily Sentiment Index) and momentum through rate-of-change (ROC) for signs of exhaustion to help bolster a reversal signal as currently these metrics are surprisingly only just barely negative. On the upside, only a move through the 3rd square root progression of the October high near 94.60 would suggest the Aussie had bottomed ahead of schedule.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_NOV_12_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Low in AUD/USD Later This Week?Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD is in consolidation mode above the 1.3290 50% retracement of the July to October range
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Euro while below the 6th square root progression of the year’s low near 1.3545
  • Traction under 1.3290 is needed to signal a resumption of the decline
  • The end of the week (and first few days of next week) is a potentially important cycle turn window
  • Any move back through 1.3545 would shift the near-term trend bias to positive
EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.3545.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3195

*1.3290

1.3390

1.3430

*1.3545

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CHF

PT_NOV_12_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Low in AUD/USD Later This Week?Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CHF traded to its highest level since mid-September last week before encountering resistance at the 4th square root progression of the year’s low in the .9245 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above .9070
  • The resistance at .9245 looks quite formidable and a daily close above this level is needed to signal the start of another meaningful push higher
  • The latter half of the week is a medium-term cycle turn window
  • A decline below the 2nd square root progression of the year’s low at .9070 would undermine the immediate positve tone in the rate
USD/CHF Strategy: Like holding long positions while above .9070.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CHF

*0.9070

0.9155

0.9200

*0.9245

0.9275

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

PT_NOV_12_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Low in AUD/USD Later This Week?Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CAD traded to its highest level since early September on Tuesday before finding resistance at the 1st square root progression of the year’s high at 1.0505
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Funds while above 1.0400
  • Traction over 1.0505 exposes a key upside attraction/reaction zone around 1.0585
  • A very minor cycle turn window is seen later this week
  • Under 1.0400 would turn us negative on Funds
USD/CAD Strategy: Like holding a reduced long position while over 1.0400.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CAD

*1.0400

1.0445

1.0495

*1.0505

1.0540



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