Filed Under:
Talking Points

  • USD/JPY under renewed pressure
  • GOLD trades to 3-month highs
  • Important cycle turn window coming up for USD/CHF
Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them here.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_FEB_14_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Moment of Truth for European CurrenciesCharts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY has come under further pressure since failing on Wednesday near the 38% retracement of the year-to-date range at 102.55
  • Our near-term trend bias is positive in the exchange rate
  • The 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at 102.75 is critical resistance that needs to be overcome soon to signal that a more important move higher is taking hold
  • A cycle turn window is seen around the middle of next week
  • A daily close below the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high at 101.35 would turn us negative again on USD/JPY
USD/JPY Strategy: Like being square for the time being, but may look to buy a break of 102.75.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

101.35

101.70

101.80

102.55

*102.75

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

PT_FEB_14_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Moment of Truth for European CurrenciesCharts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD has broken through a myriad of key resistance levels over the past few days to trade at its highest level in over three months on Friday
  • Our near-term trend bias remains higher in the metal while over 1281
  • A confluence of several key Fibonacci and Gann levels between 1318/1321 is the next important upside attraction/pivot
  • A cycle turn window is seen around the middle of next week
  • A daily close below the 3rd square root realtionship would turn us negative on the metal.
XAU/USD Strategy: Continue to like the long side while over 1281. May look to trim existing positions around the middle of next week.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1281

1297

1315

*1321

1336

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/CHF

PT_FEB_14_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Moment of Truth for European CurrenciesThe short-term cyclical picture in EUR/USD has been a bit of a mess of late as the choppy price action has made the pair difficult to analyze. As such, our main focus in Europe has been on USD/CHF which seems to have a little clearer picture. In USD/CHF, the next two days look potentially important as several short-term cycles will be converging. This argues for a reversal of some kind over the next couple of trading days. A move back over the 50% retracement of the December to January range at .8975 would probably be evidence enough of a short-term bottom. Further weakness after Monday, however, would mean our cyclical interpretation was wrong. This would likely set up a deeper decline that at least tests last year’s low.

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