Filed Under:
Talking Points

  • EUR/USD nearing important downside pivot
  • GOLD closing in on important resistance
  • Important couple of days coming up for GBP/USD
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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_JAN_17_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Sell GBP/USD Next Week?Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has come under modest downside pressure since failing earlier this week near the 38% retracement of the year’s range at 1.3685
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Euro while below 1.3800
  • The 1.3540 area remains a critical near-term pivot with weakness below this level needed soon to prompt a continuation of the downtrend
  • The latter half of next week looks to be the next important cycle turn window
  • Only a close over 1.3800 would turn us positive on the Euro
EUR/USD Strategy: Like selling into strength while below 1.3800.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3490

*1.3540

1.3585

1.3685

*1.3800

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

PT_JAN_17_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Sell GBP/USD Next Week?Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD closed over the 1247 2nd square root relationship of the 2013 low on Monday
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the metal while above 1213
  • The 88.6% retracement of the December range at 1257 is immediate resistance and traction above is needed to further confirm the importance of Monday’s break and set up further upside
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
  • Only aggressive weakness below the 1st square root relationship of the 2013 low at 1213 would turn us negative on Gold
XAU/USD Strategy: Like buying into weakness over the next day or so.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1213

1224

1244

*1257

1270

Focus Chart of the Day: GBP/USD

PT_JAN_17_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Sell GBP/USD Next Week?The 1.6345 level is important support for GBP/USD. It is the 2nd square root relationship of the year-to-date high. While the support has been breached several times over the past few days on an intraday basis, the level has yet to break on a daily close basis. A daily close is needed to confirm our suspicions that an important peak was indeed recorded on January 2nd and that a more important decline is underway. The reversal today in Cable comes during a minor cycle turn window that argues for up to a couple of days of strength before the rate heads lower again. A more important cycle turn date is seen around the end of next week. We wouldn’t be surprised to see a low around this time. A move through 1.6515 would cast some doubt on our negative cyclical view, but only a close over 1.6570 completely undermines the negative cyclical view.

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