Filed Under:
Talking Points

  • USD/JPY nearing important resistance
  • AUD/USD falls to lowest level in more than three years
  • USD/CHF price action over next few days will be important
Looking for real time Forex analysis throughout the day? Try DailyFX on Demand.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_Jan_16_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: USD/CHF Holds the KeyCharts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY has steadily recovered since finding support at the 161.8% projection of the early January decline
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in USD/JPY while below the 101.85
  • Interim support is seen at 104.40, but weakness under 103.35 is really required to signal a downside resumption
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
  • A daily close over 104.85 will shift our near-term trend bias back to positive
USD/JPY Strategy: Like selling into strength while below 104.85.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*103.35

104.40

104.70

*104.85

*105.55

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

PT_Jan_16_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: USD/CHF Holds the KeyCharts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD has come under aggressive downside pressure since turning lower during the cycle turn window at the beginning of the week
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower while below .8910
  • The 16th square root relationship of the 2013 high at .8785 is an important pivot with traction below setting up further material downside
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
  • Only a daily close back over .8910 would turn us positive on the Aussie
AUD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while under .8910.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

.8710

*.8785

.8790

.8850

*.8910

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/CHF

PT_Jan_16_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: USD/CHF Holds the KeyCycle analysis pinpointed the turn at the start of the year in USD against the European currencies. We believe there is a good chance that this turn will lead to a more important USD move higher in the weeks and months ahead. One of the main pairs that we are watching for clues as it has a tendency to be a leader is USD/CHF. The rate made its low for the 2013 on December 27th at the 127% extension of the January to May advance and has moved steadily higher ever since. We view the break and recent successful re-test of the 2nd square root relationship of the 2013 low at .8985 as very constructive. A push through the year-to-date high at .9125 in the next few days should kick off another bout of material USD strength. Unexpected aggressive weakness below .8985 would warn that a more prolonged sideways period is due. Only a daily close below .8875 would completely undermine the positive cyclicality and turn us negative on the rate.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.



comments powered by Disqus
Trading Center