Filed Under:
Talking Points

  • USD/JPY stalls near key resistance
  • USD/CHF testing important support
  • S&P 500 test key Fibonacci level
Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them here.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_Feb_13_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Watching Risk Markets Closely HereCharts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY closed over the 3rdsquare root relationship of the year-to-date high on Tuesday
  • Our near-term trend bias is now higher in the exchange rate
  • The 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at 102.75 is critical resistance that needs to be overcome soon to signal that a more important move higher is taking hold
  • A cycle turn window is seen around the middle of next week
  • A daily close below the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high at 101.35 would turn us negative again on USD/JPY
USD/JPY Strategy: Like being square for the time being, but may look to buy a break of 102.75.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

100.80

*101.35

102.05

*102.75

103.10

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CHF

PT_Feb_13_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Watching Risk Markets Closely HereCharts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CHF tested the .8935 61.8% retracement of the December to January range again today
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher while over .8935
  • The 3rd square root relationship of the year’s low at .9080 is key resistance and needs to be breached to signal a resumption of the uptrend
  • A cycle turn window is seen Friday/Monday
  • A daily close below .8935 would turn us negative on the rate
USD/CHF Strategy: May look to buy next week.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CHF

.8895

*.8935

.8940

.8990

*.9080

Focus Chart of the Day: S&P 500

PT_Feb_13_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Watching Risk Markets Closely HereThe S&P 500 has rallied aggressively since reversing during last week’s cycle turn window. A move through 1850 would confirm the significance of last week’s low and set up a further push higher into the next turn date of importance in March and possibly even into 3Q14. Yesterday the index encountered good resistance near the 78.6% retracement of the year-to-date range at 1827. A retracement of the 80+ handle move over the last week seems natural. Such a decline could extend all the way to Gann support at 1780 without inflicting any real sort of technical damage. A move below 1780 on a daily close basis would begin to cloud the positive technical outlook, but only aggressive weakness below 1738 would completely undermine the positive technical structure. Such an occurrence would signal a major shift in the index’s behavior and set up a more important distribution phase. This is not our favored scenario – just yet.

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