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EUR/USD is challenging a key support level at month-end while Gold pauses after reaching its highest level since mid-May. USD/JPY remains in consolidation mode. .

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Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Weekly_PT_euro_body_Picture_3.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Challenging a Key Support ZoneCharts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD failed last week to close above the 1.3415 2Q13 high on a weekly basis
  • While below this level our broader trend bias will remain lower
  • The 2nd square root progression of the year-to-date high at 1.3220 is key support and a weekly close below this level is needed to signal a downside trend resumption
  • A long-term cycle turn window is in effect for a few days
  • A weekly close over 1.3415 will confirm a trend reversal and open the way for a much more important move higher in the weeks ahead
Tactical EUR/USD Strategy: Still short against a weekly close over 1.3415.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3110

*1.3220

1.3220

1.3335

*1.3415

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Weekly_PT_euro_body_Picture_2.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Challenging a Key Support ZoneCharts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY has been unable to gain any real traction over the 5th square root progression of this year’s high in the 98.60 area
  • While over the 2Q13 low near .9375 our longer-term trend bias will remain higher in the rate
  • A close over 98.60 and then 99.65 on a weekly basis is needed to confirm that an upside resumption of the broader trend is indeed underway
  • The next few days are a turn window in the rate
  • The 97.50 retracement confluence remains intermediate support, but only aggressive weakness below the 2Q13 low on a multi-day closing basis would turn the broader outlook negative
Tactical USD/JPY Strategy: Tactical longs favored against .9375.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*93.75

97.60

98.55

*98.60

99.55

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: Gold

Weekly_PT_euro_body_Picture_1.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Challenging a Key Support ZoneCharts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD traded to its highest level since mid-May before finding resistance on a closing basis at the 7th square root progression of the year-to-date low at 1419
  • While abvoe the 3rd square root progression of the year-to-date low in the 1280 area our broader trend bias is positive on the metal
  • A weekly close over 1419 and then the 100% projection of the July advance at 1441 is needed to trigger the next leg higher in the metal
  • A medium-term turn window was seen around the middle of the week
  • The 4th square root progression of the year’s low near 1350 is important support, but only aggressive weakness below 1280 would turn the broader technical outlook negative
Tactical Gold Strategy: We like tactical long positions in Gold while above 1280.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1280

1350

1401

1419

*1441

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in Gold in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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