Filed Under:
Talking Points

  • Euro reverses sharply from key resistance zone
  • USD/JPY close to breaking out of multi-month consolidation
  • Gold nearing important support zone
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Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

WPT_NOV1_body_Picture_3.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Fails at Key Resistance - Now What?Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has come under aggressive downside pressure since failing last week at the 61.8% retracement of the 2011 to 2012 decline in the 1.3830 area
  • A weekly close below the 2nd square root progression of the year’s high near 1.3595 will turn the broader downtrend to negative
  • The 3rd square root progression of the year’s high at 1.3475 is a near-term downside pivot with weakness below needed to expose the 61.8% retracement of the September to October advance at 1.3380
  • The middle of November and the first half of December look significant for the Euro from a longer-term cyclical perspective
  • Back through 1.3715 needed to turn attention higher
Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Now looking to sell the Euro into strength.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3380

1.3475

1.3495

*1.3595

*1.3715

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

WPT_NOV1_body_Picture_2.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Fails at Key Resistance - Now What?Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY remains near the middle of a multi-month contracting range
  • A weekly close over 98.60 will shift our broader bias to positive in the exchange rate
  • However, a move through the 61.8% retracement of the late September to early October decline near 99.00 is really needed to increase confidence that a break of the range is underway
  • A fibonaci time relationship suggests a move out of the range is more likely here
  • Weakness below 96.55 would re-invigorate downside prospects and pave the way for a decline over the remainder of the quarter
Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: Square here, but will buy a weekly close over 98.60.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*96.55

97.60

98.75

*99.00

99.60

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

WPT_NOV1_body_Picture_1.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Fails at Key Resistance - Now What?Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD has come under steady pressure the past few days following last week’s failure near the 61.8% retracement of the August to October decline in the 1364 area
  • Our broader trend bias is positive in the metal while above the 1x1 Gann angle line of the year’s closing low near 1275
  • The 1364 level remains a clear upside hurdle and traction above is needed to signal a resumption of the uptrend
  • A potentially important cycle turn window is seen next week
  • Only a move below 1275 on a weekly closing basis would turn us negative on the metal
Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like buying into weakness over the next few days against 1275.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1275

1300

1307

1322

*1364



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