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Forex pairs in this Article » EUR/USD (Barcelona) - Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ analysts believe that EUR/USD looks bearish for the week ahead and can see spot trading between 1.3000 and 1.3350.

They begin by noting that the momentum is clearly back in favour of the dollar after the QE3 tapering speculation was given further fuel by Chairman Bernanke on Wednesday night. They feel that it will ensure that primary focus of market participants will be on data from the US that helps shape expectations on the timing of tapering.They see that Consumer Confidence, the PCE Core Inflation data and the Chicago PMI reading are the key pieces of data next week, and probably more importantly than the US data is the schedule of Fed speakers.

Further, Fed Presidents Fisher and Pianalto (both voters in 2014), Lockhart and Williams (non-voters this year and next) and Governor Powell will all speak on the economy and monetary policy next week and hence they are likely to give further comments about the prospects of tapering later this year. They write, “Fisher is an ultra-hawk while Pianalto has tended to express concern over the risk associated with balance sheet expansion. Governor Powell also has expressed similar concerns.” Data from Europe next week will focus on the IFO survey from Germany on Monday and employment and consumer spending data from France. They write, “EUR/USD is likely to take its cue from Fed rhetoric rather than euro-zone data and in that sense our bias would be for the strong dollar momentum to carry through into next week.”
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