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Forex pairs in this Article » USD/JPY (Barcelona) - On 8 October, Nomura carried out a global client survey to understand views on USDJPY, positioning, and related issues on JPY.

Key Results

1) Almost a majority of investors hold USDJPY long positions, far lower than the 68% ownership levels reported in July. Almost a third of investors also reported they are now neutral on USDJPY. End-2013 target is mostly at 100-105, unchanged from the
previous survey, but fewer investors see upside risks above 105.

2) 86% of investors see the probability of US default as less than 5%. A majority of investors expect USDJPY declines of more than 5% if US experiences default, while the impact of downgrade is expected to be muted. A majority of investors have not, and will not hedge USDJPY positions in response to US debt ceiling negotiations.

3) A majority of investors expect the Fed to start tapering in Q1 next year, while expecting further easing by the BOJ next year.
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