Filed Under:
Forex pairs in this Article » EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/JPY (Bali) - Based on the latest CFTC futures report, spec accounts added further USD exposure in the week through Nov 26, a pattern established since late Oct, leading to an implied USD long position of USD19.1bn, up from USD15.7bn in the week prior, notes the FX Team at TDS.

Key highlights

"A further slashing of EUR long positions was the largest adjustment by value over the week, with the net long position of 8.9k contracts swinging to a small net short (-0.4k) as of the 26th."

"Investors continued adding to the already extreme JPY position for another week, bringing the total net short position to 123.2k contracts, from 112.2k the week before. This is the largest net short since July 2007, and after the implied USD position, it is by far the largest single currency exposure among IMM investors (valued at USD15.2bn). Fundamentals continue to point to a lower JPY over the course of the next 12-18 months, but the risk of a short squeeze is high with such extremely one-sided positioning."

"Speculators further soured on the CAD, adding significantly to the net shorts. But while net short contracts jumped notably to 28.8k contracts from 16.3k in the week prior, the position remains well shy of where it was from February through May."

"Positioning among the other commodity currencies remained fairly neutral, with investors continuing to prefer the NZD over the AUD and CAD. Net AUD shorts were trimmed slightly to 33.5k contracts (from 35.8k), while net NZD positioning remained long of 10.2k contracts (down from 12.5k)."

"Positioning among the remaining majors was little changed as well, with GBP exposure continuing to be near neutral at just 0.4k contracts, and CHF long positioning growing to 4.7k (from 3.7k). Investors also added just slight to MXN net longs, which stood at 12.5k contracts (9.5k last)."
comments powered by Disqus
Trading Center