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Forex pairs in this Article » USD/JPY
Karen Jones, Head of Technical Analysis at Commerzbank notes that USD/JPY we continue to suspect that the market has topped short term, however it will need to close below its 20 day moving average at 104.20 and we suspect its 103.74 May high to confirm this view.

Key Quotes

“Reasons for our concerns are as follows: - not only has the market reversed from its long term Fibonacci retracement at 105.49, BUT we have a 13 count and a divergence of the daily and weekly RSI.”

“All 3 factors suggest that the market has topped for now. The Elliott wave count is suggesting that we will then see a deeper retracement to 103.35/102.05, the 23.6% and the 38.2% retracements of the move up from October.”

“Longer term, the market last year broke up from a large triangle and this points to a longer term target of 108.86.”
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