Forex: AUD/USD - waiting the RBA for a technical resolution
Forex pairs in this Article »
AUD/USD
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - AUDUSD continues to trade bottled up between the round number 1.04 - last week's low - and 1.0475/80 - range topside - in what seems to be still a market that reflects uncertainty over upcoming outcomes.
RBA rate call tomorrow - +80% priced in -, Australian labour data on Thursday, US NFP on Friday, US fiscal cliff resolution, you name it, are all key events disallowing volatility in the pairing.
Looking at the immediate RBA risk event, market has been increasing its bets for a rate cut by the RBA tomorrow, from +50% to current +80% pricing, suggesting that moves in favour of the Aussie will be potentially of greater proportions than otherwise.
A rate hold tomorrow may cause some serious Aussie buying to expose recent highs ahead of round 1.05, with a decisive break and hold above the level required to set more ambitious goals. On the contrary, a rate cut, and depending on how dovish the statement sounds, will see 1.0385 ahead of 1.0330/50 vicinity as key areas to watch.
According to GlobalFX Founder Greg McKenna: "On balance, with positioning as expressed by the CFTC COT report at the high end of longs and with the top of the range having proved solid again last week the AUD is probably slightly more vulnerable to the downside against the US dollar and will lag on the crosses. 1.0380/85 looks likely to support short term."
RBA rate call tomorrow - +80% priced in -, Australian labour data on Thursday, US NFP on Friday, US fiscal cliff resolution, you name it, are all key events disallowing volatility in the pairing.
Looking at the immediate RBA risk event, market has been increasing its bets for a rate cut by the RBA tomorrow, from +50% to current +80% pricing, suggesting that moves in favour of the Aussie will be potentially of greater proportions than otherwise.
A rate hold tomorrow may cause some serious Aussie buying to expose recent highs ahead of round 1.05, with a decisive break and hold above the level required to set more ambitious goals. On the contrary, a rate cut, and depending on how dovish the statement sounds, will see 1.0385 ahead of 1.0330/50 vicinity as key areas to watch.
According to GlobalFX Founder Greg McKenna: "On balance, with positioning as expressed by the CFTC COT report at the high end of longs and with the top of the range having proved solid again last week the AUD is probably slightly more vulnerable to the downside against the US dollar and will lag on the crosses. 1.0380/85 looks likely to support short term."
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