Forex: EUR/USD holds above 1.2800; Ready to another attack
Forex pairs in this Article »
EUR/USD
FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The euro conquered the 1.2800 key level against the dollar in the beginning of the American session, and after a consolidation phase, the EURUSD seems to be ready to attack for new highs above 1.2820. A new risk sentiment wave has taken the market and currencies as well as stocks and commodities are joining it.
As well as the dollar came under pressure Monday on fiscal cliff 'constructive' news, the euro trade bullish supported by positive reports about the EU giving a 'go ahead' to the Greek EUR 44B next aid tranche and talks saying that the Troika is considering extending Greece repayment moratorium to 2032. In other words, situation was a basket case last week, but with the new Monday, situation is now sound
So near-term outlook has improved and a close above the 1.2800/05 psychological level and 200-day SMA should ease the bearish pressure and turn focus toward 1.2875 region. On the downside, loss of 1.2700 would leave the pair vulnerable, and a slide toward 1.2600 should not be dismissed.
As for the short term, FXstreet.com Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik states that while sentiment is strong, Euro not that much. "The hourly chart shows a positive tone, as price finds support in a bullish 20 SMA, although indicators lack momentum and hover above their midlines."
"In the 4 hours chart technical readings present a more neutral stance with a timid bullish tone surging, all of which supports the need of further confirmation before a run higher," adds Bednarik. "Price needs to advance and hold above the 1.2810 mark to see a bullish continuation rally today."
But in the bigger chart, Rabobank Strategist Jane Foley argues "It is hoped that the officials will be in a position to sign off on the next tranche of Greece's bail-out money. This may be worthy of another small boost to risk appetite this week. However, it is clear that the factions of the troika have differing opinions on the sustainability of Greek debt over the longer-term and this will surely be an issue that will return to the fore again and again over the coming years".
The expert believes there is potential for another upside in EURUSD, although "we expect that this will limited. We would favour selling rallies towards the 200 day sma at EURUSD 1.2808".
The Experts, Banks and Independents' FXstreet.com Forecast Poll agrees with the overall negative sentiment will continue for the Euro as it is the common bias among poll participants, but there is a strong level to break at 1.2700 area if bears want to go further.
Meanwhile, Risk appetite also boosted commodities and stocks. The Gold was trading around $1730/oz and the barrel of WTI climbing almost 3% or $2.57 at $89.49.
The Dow Jones have soared 200.65 pts or 1.65% to reach the 12,795.96 level. The S&P 500 have gained 27.01 pts or 1.99% to climb as high as 1,386.89 and the Nasdaq Composite have jumped 62.94 pts or 2.21% to peak to 2,916.07.
As well as the dollar came under pressure Monday on fiscal cliff 'constructive' news, the euro trade bullish supported by positive reports about the EU giving a 'go ahead' to the Greek EUR 44B next aid tranche and talks saying that the Troika is considering extending Greece repayment moratorium to 2032. In other words, situation was a basket case last week, but with the new Monday, situation is now sound
So near-term outlook has improved and a close above the 1.2800/05 psychological level and 200-day SMA should ease the bearish pressure and turn focus toward 1.2875 region. On the downside, loss of 1.2700 would leave the pair vulnerable, and a slide toward 1.2600 should not be dismissed.
As for the short term, FXstreet.com Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik states that while sentiment is strong, Euro not that much. "The hourly chart shows a positive tone, as price finds support in a bullish 20 SMA, although indicators lack momentum and hover above their midlines."
"In the 4 hours chart technical readings present a more neutral stance with a timid bullish tone surging, all of which supports the need of further confirmation before a run higher," adds Bednarik. "Price needs to advance and hold above the 1.2810 mark to see a bullish continuation rally today."
But in the bigger chart, Rabobank Strategist Jane Foley argues "It is hoped that the officials will be in a position to sign off on the next tranche of Greece's bail-out money. This may be worthy of another small boost to risk appetite this week. However, it is clear that the factions of the troika have differing opinions on the sustainability of Greek debt over the longer-term and this will surely be an issue that will return to the fore again and again over the coming years".
The expert believes there is potential for another upside in EURUSD, although "we expect that this will limited. We would favour selling rallies towards the 200 day sma at EURUSD 1.2808".
The Experts, Banks and Independents' FXstreet.com Forecast Poll agrees with the overall negative sentiment will continue for the Euro as it is the common bias among poll participants, but there is a strong level to break at 1.2700 area if bears want to go further.
Meanwhile, Risk appetite also boosted commodities and stocks. The Gold was trading around $1730/oz and the barrel of WTI climbing almost 3% or $2.57 at $89.49.
The Dow Jones have soared 200.65 pts or 1.65% to reach the 12,795.96 level. The S&P 500 have gained 27.01 pts or 1.99% to climb as high as 1,386.89 and the Nasdaq Composite have jumped 62.94 pts or 2.21% to peak to 2,916.07.
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