Forex: EUR/USD, technicals & fundamentals backing sellers
Forex pairs in this Article »
EUR/USD
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The state of affairs for the European shared currency continues to augur additional selling pressure ahead of Europe, a pattern already seen in the last Asian trading hours, when EURUSD sellers managed to assault fresh new levels below 1.2685, with flows sending the spot rate to a new 9-week low at 1.2660.
The last round of Euro selling interest out of Asia comes as the Eurogroup decided to hold out any decision over Greece's ¬31.5bn next aid tranche until next Tuesday November 20, when they will meet again.
According to UBS FX Strategists Gareth Berry, "breakthrough is still some way off with next decision on Greece not scheduled until Nov. 20", adding that "the null outcome will now increase the market attention on Tuesday's issue of Greek T-bills."
Busy day ahead for the London session
A bunch of data releases will keep traders glued to the wires today. The show starts with French jobs data and current account at 07:45 GMT, followed 15 minutes later by Spanish CPI, Italian CPI at 09:00 GMT, and the highly followed German ZEW at 10:00 GMT, while the ECOFIN meeting, held in Brussels, will take place all day long.
Bank of Portugal will also release its Autumn economic bulletin, with CPI figures for Portugal at 10:00 GMT. At 14:30 GMT Greek FinMin Stournaras will speak to EU lawmakers, while EU managing director of the Institute of International Finance Dallara will hold talks with senior government officials and private sector leaders regarding Greece and the Euro Area.
In the sovereign debt auctions front, Italy will deliver 12 month bills, with 10 year bond yields standing barely above 5.03%, steady around the 5% figure for last 2 months, while Greece will try to sell 13-weeks T-Bill, as mentioned above.
EURUSD, technicals and fundamentals point south
On the Euro technical readings, "technical readings go with fundamentals in the short term" says Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com.
"For the short term, the bearish stance remains in place, as recovery attempts remained capped below 1.2740/50 area, 38.2% retracement of its latest bullish run, and immediate resistance level; the break below 1.2690, past Friday low, - materialized in Asia - will expose next Fibonacci support, 50% of the same rally around 1.2610" Valeria notes.
The medium-term outlook for the euro remains lower, agrees the Wells Fargo FX Team. "A run of encouraging debt crisis developments may be nearing an end, while ongoing economic softness and easy European Central Bank monetary policy should continue to weigh on the euro", they explain. "FX positioning and technicals both offer scope for euro declines, and we see a weaker euro outlook over both the near and medium-term".
Next immediate support for EURUSD lies at Aug 31 highs 1.2640, followed by May 24/28 highs area/50% Fibo retrace of latest daily up leg 1.2035/1.3175 at 1.2605/10 (as Valeria notes), and Aug 23 highs at 1.2585. To the upside, closest resistance shows at Friday's/Monday's lows 1.2690/1.2700, followed by Thursday's lows at 1.2717, and yesterday's highs at 1.2740.
The last round of Euro selling interest out of Asia comes as the Eurogroup decided to hold out any decision over Greece's ¬31.5bn next aid tranche until next Tuesday November 20, when they will meet again.
According to UBS FX Strategists Gareth Berry, "breakthrough is still some way off with next decision on Greece not scheduled until Nov. 20", adding that "the null outcome will now increase the market attention on Tuesday's issue of Greek T-bills."
Busy day ahead for the London session
A bunch of data releases will keep traders glued to the wires today. The show starts with French jobs data and current account at 07:45 GMT, followed 15 minutes later by Spanish CPI, Italian CPI at 09:00 GMT, and the highly followed German ZEW at 10:00 GMT, while the ECOFIN meeting, held in Brussels, will take place all day long.
Bank of Portugal will also release its Autumn economic bulletin, with CPI figures for Portugal at 10:00 GMT. At 14:30 GMT Greek FinMin Stournaras will speak to EU lawmakers, while EU managing director of the Institute of International Finance Dallara will hold talks with senior government officials and private sector leaders regarding Greece and the Euro Area.
In the sovereign debt auctions front, Italy will deliver 12 month bills, with 10 year bond yields standing barely above 5.03%, steady around the 5% figure for last 2 months, while Greece will try to sell 13-weeks T-Bill, as mentioned above.
EURUSD, technicals and fundamentals point south
On the Euro technical readings, "technical readings go with fundamentals in the short term" says Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com.
"For the short term, the bearish stance remains in place, as recovery attempts remained capped below 1.2740/50 area, 38.2% retracement of its latest bullish run, and immediate resistance level; the break below 1.2690, past Friday low, - materialized in Asia - will expose next Fibonacci support, 50% of the same rally around 1.2610" Valeria notes.
The medium-term outlook for the euro remains lower, agrees the Wells Fargo FX Team. "A run of encouraging debt crisis developments may be nearing an end, while ongoing economic softness and easy European Central Bank monetary policy should continue to weigh on the euro", they explain. "FX positioning and technicals both offer scope for euro declines, and we see a weaker euro outlook over both the near and medium-term".
Next immediate support for EURUSD lies at Aug 31 highs 1.2640, followed by May 24/28 highs area/50% Fibo retrace of latest daily up leg 1.2035/1.3175 at 1.2605/10 (as Valeria notes), and Aug 23 highs at 1.2585. To the upside, closest resistance shows at Friday's/Monday's lows 1.2690/1.2700, followed by Thursday's lows at 1.2717, and yesterday's highs at 1.2740.
Free Annual Reports
