Forex Flash: ADP Survey hints at 200k NFP climb – Societe Generale
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale sees that the ADP employment survey, which posted an increase of 192,000, points to an increase of around 200k, in line with the SG forecast.
He feels that this would mark a clear pickup, since the 3, 6 and 12 month average payroll increases are all clustered in a 150-160k range. He is looking for a dip in the unemployment rate and a flat monthly earnings figure, taking wage growth to 1.9%.
He believes that they key for all markets is when a faster pace of employment creation and a continued decline in unemployment has an impact on Fed policy expectations. He finishes by writing, "H2 2013 is my guess, but for now the recipe for markets remains intact - the good US data are better for the Euro than the dollar and probably better for CAD than USD, too."
He feels that this would mark a clear pickup, since the 3, 6 and 12 month average payroll increases are all clustered in a 150-160k range. He is looking for a dip in the unemployment rate and a flat monthly earnings figure, taking wage growth to 1.9%.
He believes that they key for all markets is when a faster pace of employment creation and a continued decline in unemployment has an impact on Fed policy expectations. He finishes by writing, "H2 2013 is my guess, but for now the recipe for markets remains intact - the good US data are better for the Euro than the dollar and probably better for CAD than USD, too."
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