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Forex pairs in this Article » USD/JPY (Barcelona) - According to Senior FX Strategist Khoon Goh at ANZ, "We analyzed monthly spot returns for the G10 and AXJ currencies to identify seasonal patterns -most currency seasonality analyses tend to look merely at the average spot returns, which can be misleading as the average figure could have been influenced by large moves during one or two years."

We prefer to focus on the frequency as well as the magnitude of the moves in our seasonality analysis and at first glance, it appears there are no strong patterns during February, judging from the average spot returns. USDJPY has the highest average return of 0.98%, followed by USD/KRW at 0.93%. These are not strong returns, especially considering that the directional moves have not been consistent (close to a coin toss in fact).

However, the currency with the best directional move is AUD, rising in 10 out of the last 13 years during February. The average spot return during that time is not that impressive at 0.74% but on closer inspection, we find that since 2002, AUD has posted positive gains in all February months bar one. In addition, the average spot return was dragged lower by large declines in 2000 and 2001. The median spot return for AUD is a more respectable 1.31%, and the average return since 2002 is 1.55%.
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