Forex Flash: AUD/USD lacks impetus to break above 1.0400 – NAB
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AUD/USD
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The AUD has recently been at the strong end of ranges, though failed to break higher. Consistent with the projections of the NAB Strategy Team, "We remain sellers above AUDUSD 1.0400, however a move towards the 1.0100 mark would encapsulate the lower end of the range."
Specifically, "A lower ToT and less supportive rate differentials may make it difficult for AUD to break to the upside. The gap between our present value model estimate and spot has widened, raising pressure for more RBA easing - global uncertainties may also hinder positive progress." the team warns.
Moreover, the AUD has been buoyed by improving global economic data (e.g. China September data and October, flash PMI) and local data (CPI), which puts a November rate cut into doubt. This has pushed the AUD to the strong side of recent ranges on a host of crosses, though it has not been enough to nudge the AUD out of the range. "We continue to see the AUD struggling to break higher. However, periodic sell-offs are likely to find strong support if the 1.0100 area is approached." they note.
Specifically, "A lower ToT and less supportive rate differentials may make it difficult for AUD to break to the upside. The gap between our present value model estimate and spot has widened, raising pressure for more RBA easing - global uncertainties may also hinder positive progress." the team warns.
Moreover, the AUD has been buoyed by improving global economic data (e.g. China September data and October, flash PMI) and local data (CPI), which puts a November rate cut into doubt. This has pushed the AUD to the strong side of recent ranges on a host of crosses, though it has not been enough to nudge the AUD out of the range. "We continue to see the AUD struggling to break higher. However, periodic sell-offs are likely to find strong support if the 1.0100 area is approached." they note.
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