Forex Flash: EUR/USD, dealing with broader uptrend or countertrend rally? - JPMorgan
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EUR/USD
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - EURUSD remains in a familiar 1.3260-1.34 range, with the recent moves still missing the final clue on "whether all this could be part of a much broader uptrend or countertrend rally" says John Normand, FX strategist at JPMorgan.
John: "In both cases the market would have to clear key-resistance at 1.3487/93 (2012 high/50 %) whereas the upside would be capped around 1.3782 (weekly Ichimoku-lagging) or at 1.4259 (int. 76.4 %) in case we are dealing with a countertrend rally only."
"Below 1.3487/93 though, this market remains vulnerable and at risk of potentially resuming the pre-July 2012 bear trend which includes a re-test of former lows from 2010 and 2005 at 1.1876 and at 1.1641. For the latter to receive fresh support though, it would take breaks below pivotal support at 1.3127 and ultimately below weekly trend line support at 1.3011" Mr. Normand adds.
John: "In both cases the market would have to clear key-resistance at 1.3487/93 (2012 high/50 %) whereas the upside would be capped around 1.3782 (weekly Ichimoku-lagging) or at 1.4259 (int. 76.4 %) in case we are dealing with a countertrend rally only."
"Below 1.3487/93 though, this market remains vulnerable and at risk of potentially resuming the pre-July 2012 bear trend which includes a re-test of former lows from 2010 and 2005 at 1.1876 and at 1.1641. For the latter to receive fresh support though, it would take breaks below pivotal support at 1.3127 and ultimately below weekly trend line support at 1.3011" Mr. Normand adds.
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