FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - As the US lives in a paradise from a European point of view (financial system working again, unemployment rate falling slowly but consistently, and expected GDP growth of 2½% p.a long term), Commerzbank analysts point out that the real threat for the dollar does not come from the economy but from politics: "The debate about the fiscal cliff has not died away yet (and certainly has not been solved) and the next disaster is looming in the shape of the debt ceiling debate", wrote analyst Ulrich Leuchtmann, adding that what is at stake is not only the best way towards a budget policy that stimulates growth but that is sustainable at the same time.

The US political system is at stake as if no consistent fiscal policy is formulated, the US risk losing global investors' trust. "And how are things looking in other policy areas, such as social, educational and structural policies which are just as decisive for long term growth prospects? Will the increased radicalisation of the US political spectrum also make it impossible to agree on sensible policies in these areas? Another lame compromise at the last minute is unlikely to lessen these concerns", Leuchtmann added, pointing to the return of political culture to Washington as key to restore confidence in the greenback.


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