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Forex pairs in this Article » (Barcelona) - Early US election results are just around the corner, and according to John J Hardy, Head of FX Strategy at Saxo Bank, an Obama victory, "is more risk positive, USD negative as immediate reaction, but any further reaction in this direction could quickly fade as uncertainty over fiscal cliff settles, which would be USD positive and risk negative."

The night's uncertainty could drag for a very long time, according to Mr. Hardy, if: "Romney wins Florida and the Obama margin of victory in Ohio is very slim" he says.

Mr. Hardy explains: "Ohio has cumbersome procedures related to counting votes from voters who show up with insufficient identification and overseas voters, etc.. These votes are not counted until 10 days after the election and then if the overall result is still extremely close, another 10 days is required for a full recount of all votes. So then we're talking close to December 1 or a Bush/Gore 2000 Election replay. This is very low odds, but never say never."
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