Forex Flash: Of course, NFP´s and ISM rule the roost today - BTMU

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Global Markets Research at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that the key event of the day will of course be the US non-farm payrolls and ISM manufacturing reports this afternoon.

He writes, "The ADP report was stronger than expected and although initial claims bounced yesterday, the ADP points to a pick-up today in the NFP reading. Our NFP model gives us an estimate of 199k, although we have had to make assumptions for both ISM employment readings and the Monster Employment Index (we assumed unchanged from last month)." Based on revised data, his estimated gain would be the strongest since February last year and he also gets
the annual benchmark revision and the authorities have already indicated an upward revision to the March 2012 benchmark level. He finishes by writing , "We do expect better US economic data to lift the dollar although with Euro sentiment so strong, that type of dynamic is maybe not a story for today and indeed a modest pick-up in employment today may fuel a further shift in the Euro zone rates market that would ultimately help lift the Euro. A figure over 200k and a drop in the unemployment rate would be required to help the dollar. "