Forex Flash: RBNZ rate hike a foregone conclusion until June – UBS
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - NZD volumes are currently trading well over their AUD counterparts, leading to much speculation as to what could be behind the moves. Moreover, "Tonight's NZ trade numbers have been talked about as a potential focus of market attention, although we very much doubt this is the underlying explanation - after all New Zealand is no stranger to trade deficits, and large seasonal shifts are commonplace too." notes Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS.
According to Berry, "A more likely explanation in our view is the upcoming calendar of NZ event risk, which culminates in an RBNZ policy decision on January 31st." Driving the volume spread wider still is the fact that the RBA takes an annual break from policy decisions during the month of January. So if a policy surprise emerges in the coming weeks, it can only come from one possible source.
Our NZ economist does not expect an RBNZ rate hike until June, but we see some scope for Governor Wheeler to express concern about rapidly rising house prices - comments, which if they materialize would likely be NZD supportive.
According to Berry, "A more likely explanation in our view is the upcoming calendar of NZ event risk, which culminates in an RBNZ policy decision on January 31st." Driving the volume spread wider still is the fact that the RBA takes an annual break from policy decisions during the month of January. So if a policy surprise emerges in the coming weeks, it can only come from one possible source.
Our NZ economist does not expect an RBNZ rate hike until June, but we see some scope for Governor Wheeler to express concern about rapidly rising house prices - comments, which if they materialize would likely be NZD supportive.
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