Forex Flash: Sinking safe havens – Societe Generale

By | January 17, 2013 AAA (Barcelona) - Sebastien Galy, Senior FX Strategist at Societe Generale recalls that King Orgetorix burnt his beloved Swiss lands in a forced migration away from Germanic tribal pressure.

However, he notes that things are far more civilised now, but the pressure comes from central banks and it is only option books that are burning as EURCHF explodes higher. He sees that the great portfolio outflows are yet to materialise boosting EURCHF. He is targeting an overshoot above 1.3000 as investors put on strategic shorts in CHF.

Galy comments that the sad historical reality is that King Orgetorix met a rising Caesar who decimated the Helvetians and sent them packing home to face the Germanic tribes. He notes that the question for the futures is therefore, and asks "what will be considered safe? Cash costs with negative real yields, the back end of yield curves in the US is increasingly at risk, equities are by definition risky and gold is not necessarily a hedge when the Fed is less clearly on the expansionary path." Galy feels that the answer in FX seems to be rising uncertainty translating into higher FX vols. This uncertainty is likely to percolate across asset classes.

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