Forex Flash: UK ILO unemployment to be unchanged at 7.8% but with risks to 7.9% - RBS

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The U.K. National Statistics is scheduled to publish its ILO and Claimant Change November report and market expects a ILO unemployment report to be unchanged at 7.8% rate with a Claimant count with an increase of 7.0%, but RBS analyst Ross Walker expects figures to be slightly weaker.

RBS forecasts the ILO "employment to rise by 35k in the three months to
October, compared to a 100k increase in the three months to September/Q3." But on the ILO unemployment measure, the claimant count change, Walker expects "a deterioration in the latest month," a small rise of around 5k, "though this would not prevent the headline three-month change showing a slightly larger fall than last month's figures -73k vs -50k."

A mix of both, employment and unemployment outturns, "would leave the unemployment rate at 7.8%," points Walker. "With modest risks of a rise to 7.9%."

As for the currency field, the sterling is currently giving away initial gains after the tops above 1.6120 in a context dominated by increasing risk appetite, ahead of tomorrow's release of the ILO Unemployment Rate and the Claimant Count Change in the UK.