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Forex pairs in this Article » (Barcelona) - TD Securities analysts point to the importance of today's ADP employment report and tomorrow's Chicago PMI as they will be the last pieces of the payrolls puzzle before Friday. In regard to ADP, there is market expectation of 165K in January, closer to the actual 168K gain in private payrolls positions in December (according to the BLS nonfarm report) than the 215K ADP reading in December.

"We also have the first estimate of Q4 GDP, where markets are looking for 1.1% Q/Q annualized growth, but we see downside risk and are looking for a gain of just over half that size", wrote analyst Alvin Pontoh, pointing to the unfavourable global environment and the drawdown in inventories as cause of the slodown in growth momentum.

"Inventories should subtract as much as 1.2ppts from GDP, with net trade taking away a further 0.9ppts. Strength will come from steady consumer spending and residential investment, and we expect growth to accelerate to north of 2% in Q1 2013", Pontoh added.

About the FOMC meeting today, there isn't much to expect: "With the QE3 decision now in the rear-view mirror and the framework for guiding monetary policy set in place, the January FOMC meetingis likely to pass uneventfully", he wrote, saying that the Fed is likely to make only minor changes to the language in the communiqué.
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