Filed Under:
Forex pairs in this Article » USD/CHF
FXstreet.com (London) - USD/CHF is resuming the downside having closed the gap from Friday, trading higher in the European session before the release of disappointing US data.

USD/CHF fell after US retail sales disappointed yesterday. The pair broke back down through the 95.00 handle to finally print a low overnight which has been extended upon in the London open to print 0.9465. The US dollar will continue to be subject to, and probably quite volatile, around the performance of the US economy while Bernanke keeps markets on the edge of their seats in relation to the subsequent risks to global markets around the subject of tapering QE.

USD/CHF event risk

US CPI is on the cards coming up today as the major risk event. Data is for June and the consensus is for an increase to 1.5% y/y from 1.4% in May. We will hear Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony to US Congress tomorrow. The low level of inflation that many participants are concerned about will likely be addressed in relation to timings of tapering, as coupled with a high level of unemployment there may be signals that in fact more stimulus is needed, so quite the opposite to current sentiment. US CPI is also on the cards coming up today as the major risk event. Data is for June and the consensus is for an increase to 1.6% y/y from 1.4% in May.

USD/CHF a mixed bag

Alex Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank suggested that USD/CHF continues to exhibit signs of recovery just ahead of its 6 week uptrend at 0.9426. He said the Elliot wave count on the daily chart suggests that the market should stabilise between here and Fibonacci support at 0.9368 and the 200 day ma at 0.9358. “The intraday charts are suggesting a more negative stance and rallies will need to regain the 0.9568 March high in order to retarget the 0.9753 July high. Any erosion of the 0.9358 200 day ma would provoke another step down to the 0.9269/78.6% retracement.”
comments powered by Disqus
Trading Center