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Forex pairs in this Article » USD/JPY (Athens) – The USD/JPY is trading above 98.00 level mostly due to the very weak Japanese exports released in the Asian trading session, to the broader recovery of the American dollar ahead of the NFP data tomorrow, as well as due to the trade balance deficit release.

USD/JPY heading north; major key drivers weak export growth, sustained trade deficit

The USD/JPY has been heading consistently higher and above 98.00 handle since the kick off of the Asian trading session for a couple of reasons. Reading between the lines we could say that the major catalyst that pushed the cross higher was the release of the exports growth in Japan; the data showed that Japanese exports increased by 11.5% on a yearly basis on September, which is the slowest rate in 3-months. Precisely, exports missed consensus of (+15.6%) and the Japanese currency was severely hurt across the board sending the cross above the 98.00 handle. What’s more, Japan witnessed another month of trade deficit and to be elaborate on, the trade balance in Japan released at negative levels for a consecutive 15th month. This might be a problem to the country which might be in need – soon - to import capital. Last, the cross uptrend behavior is also attributed to the fact that traders closed their short positions on the American dollar due to profit taking, but as well ahead of a US forthcoming flurry of data.

Technical Aspects on the USD/JPY

Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank suggests that “the softer US yields continued to pressure the USD/JPY and US data releases this week may continue to have a significant bearing on the pair in the near term. On the policy front, Japanese monetary policy is expected to stay the course with the BOJ’s Iwata pledging to take necessary action if the 2% inflation goal is compromised. In the near term, the USD/JPY may run into resistance at the 55-day MA (98.27) with 97.50 expected to offer initial support on dips.”
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