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Forex pairs in this Article » USD/JPY (Athens) – The USD/JPY has slightly dropped below 100.00 zone during the Asian trading and the opening of Europe and ahead of the crucial today’s NFP data.

Will the USD/JPY manage to drive a solid upward trend after today’s NFP?

Yesterday, the USD/JPY was heavily boosted due to more than solid US data, i.e. ADP employment report, unemployment claims and ISM non-manufacturing index. Therefore the pair, while was choppy in early European trading, regained momentum on the US data, bouncing from 99.85 to 100.15 and then slightly higher into Sydney trade . Elaborating on the US data, the US ISM non-manufacturing index rose from 56.0 to 58.6 in Aug, crushing consensus of 55.0. What’s more, US ADP private payrolls rose 176k in Aug, close to consensus though down from 198K in Jul, which was well above the official estimate of 161K. Last but not least, Initial jobless claims fell 9k to 323k in the last week of June. Today, there is a relatively light calendar to distract us, from the NFP release. Stronger or at least steady NFP data will ultimately reinforce the notorious ‘Septaper’, spuring risk-aversion. If the risk aversion theme is heavy enough to offset the constant pressure by the BoJ, it would be a signal of fervent risk aversion.

Strategic Bias and Technical Outlook on USD/JPY

There was an early plunge on the Nikkei on deep concerns that Tokyo may not get the Olympics, weekend profit taking, pre US NFP data, as well as due on heavy selling from Japanese exporters. Japanese exporters were good sellers at the high and chased the markets lower with sizeable sales on the break below 100.00, at 99.90. According to Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research in ANZ team, "Current range trading (96-103) is seen as constructive in the context of an underlying
Bias is buy into USD/JPY weakness for a retest of recent highs’. At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 99.75 area, down 0.33% and close to its daily low of 99.70. The Trend Index shows the pair to be slightly bearish in the 15 minutes chart. Daily pivot point support can be found at 99.43, 99.14, 98.94 and resistance at 100.48, 100.73 and 100.98, respectively.
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