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Forex pairs in this Article » EUR/USD (San Francisco) - After testing the 1.3000 area in the last four sessions, the EUR/USD hasn’t been able to break down the 1.3000 key level. In addition, the EUR/USD traded 0.38% higher in the first day of the 2nd half of 2013 to close at 1.3060 and Goldman Sachs recommended traders to go long to 1.3500.

Technically, the EUR/USD is trading slightly bullish according to the trend index in the 1-hour chart. Indicators such as MACD, CCI and Momentum are pointing to the north while the Stochastic is bearish. According to's Chief Analyst Valeria Bendarik, the pair is "holding around the 61.8% retracement of its latest bullish run [at 1.3066]. The level had attracted sellers in the past, but interest recedes as price holds nearby unable to pullback."

What changed in the pair? In the last week many experts were commenting that the bears were in charge in the EUR/USD and they also put a target around to the 1.2500 area. In fact, according to a recent report, 'smart money' has buying interest in the 1.2460-1.2650 area while supply is seen around 1.3080 and 1.3150.

According to Geoffrey Yu, a Research analyst at UBS, nothing is changing and the current bearish trend is alive. Yu believes that "with broader risk conditions stabilizing, high beta currencies managed to stem the large outflows seen prior, however we suspect it was more of a case of small-scale short-covering rather than fresh longs.”

“If this pattern continues on the back of this growth dividend, the EUR/USD is likely to fall gradually towards our end-2013 forecast of 1.200," Yu states in a recent report

Ilian Yotov, analyst, commented in the Forecast Poll that the "difference in monetary policy with the European Central Bank still in an easing mode while the Fed takes the first step towards tightening should continue to be USD supportive." In this line, Dave Floyd from Aspen agreed that the bears are in charge since June 21.

However, above the 1.3066 mentioned before, "price may extend up to 1.3130 if price accelerates above the Fibonacci level, although further consolidation above 1.3000 should be expected ahead of key data later this week," as Bednarik says.

The owner trader of Hawkeye Anna Coulling goes further as she pointed in the same poll that the 1.3000 is a strong support and after holding it, it "should help to push the pair to 1.32 and beyond."
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