One of the biggest questions investors have had since Donald Trump was elected President in November of 2016 is how the new leader and his administration will affect the broad investment world. Trump's campaign talk about tax reform and loosening of regulations played well with many analysts and investors, and markets have enjoyed a rally since shortly after the election. However, the longer term benefits to the market have yet to take effect: Trump's proposed tax reform seems to have been put on a backburner for the time being, and Goldman Sachs' analysts predict it may not actually make it to the markets until a year from now. So, for the time being, the market has had to remain patient with the new administration, hopeful that it will come through with its promises. In a recent report by JPMorgan, however, there are signs that the patience of the market may not be able to hold forever.
Lack of Visibility in Washington a Problem for Markets
JPMorgan's (JPM) Adam Crisafulli wrote earlier this week of a phenomenon of patience in markets and investor circles in the recent weeks and months. According to ZeroHedge, Crisafulli's report focused on the equities market's tendency to watch Paul Ryan's health care bill as it appears to approach a House floor vote. This vote is scheduled for this Thursday. Equities and other investors are likely to see the health care bill vote as a symbol of Ryan and the GOP's strength in putting forward other proposals, including the much-anticipated tax form agenda. Should the health care bill fail to advance, it's likely that market confidence in an eventual tax reform will also diminish. Crisafulli seems to believe that the fact that there will be a health care bill vote suggests in itself that Ryan is confident it will be able to pass, although only time will tell.
Even if the vote in the House passes, the health care bill seems unlikely to make it past the Senate. This will raise a number of other issues for investors, including questions about the amount of time, effort, and political capital Republicans in Washington will give to passing the health care reform bill. Too much attention in that direction means that tax reform and other market-focused initiatives are less likely to pass.
Unofficial Deadline of April?
JPMorgan suggests that investors are willing to remain calm for the time being, but that patience may run out if the Obamacare reform bill stays deadlocked much longer. The report suggests that passage by April will be key to ensuring investors are willing to remain patient in the area of tax reform as well.