The NZD/USD pair fell during the course of the day on Tuesday, but we remain above the 0.84 level. Because of this, I think there is still a bit of support just below, and I’m a bit hesitant to start selling. However, I think that a break below the aforementioned 0.84 level does signal that we will go down to the 0.8250 level, and I would be very bearish at that point in time. I believe that the 0.84 level is massively supportive, as seen during the early part of June. With that, I think that the market will more than likely bounce from there but am not willing to commit any trading capital until I get the right supportive candle.

I believe that a break higher would more than likely send this market looking for the 0.88 level given enough time. That would involve clearing the 0.8525 level, something that’s going to take a bit of momentum, but then again that’s the point. I need to see bullish momentum in order to be involved in this market to the upside.

Remember, the New Zealand dollar is heavily influenced by risk appetite.

The New Zealand dollar of course is heavily influenced by risk appetite, so pay attention to the stock markets and commodity markets on the whole. If they are all basically going higher, that is good for the New Zealand dollar in general. It wouldn’t surprise me if we got a decent bounce from here, but again I need to see the breakout above the short-term resistance in order to consider going long at this point in time.

Ultimately, if we get above there think we could go to the 0.88 level as I mentioned previously, but I think it will be more of a “by on the dips” type of scenario as there is certainly a lot of noise above. With that being the case, I think that’s what’s going to happen, but again I need confirmation as the markets have been so erratic lately.

NZDUSD 82014

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