AUDJPY Long-bias at Risk Sub 96- BoJ / China Data On Tap

By DailyFx | Updated July 30, 2014 AAA

DailyFX.com -

Talking Points

  • AUDJPY testing major resistance just below 2014 highs
  • Monthly opening range set 94.27 – 96.11
  • Event risk on tap from Japan & China tonight

AUDJPY Daily Chart

AUDJPY Long-bias at Risk Sub 96- BoJ / China Data On Tap

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDJPY at critical Fibonacci resistance barrier 95.67/90
  • Breach targets resistance objectives at 96.50, 96.89 & 97.50/67
  • Support at 95.10, 94.27/55 (bullish invalidation) , 92.95-93.34
  • Daily RSI bearish support trigger pending
  • Event Risk Ahead: BoJ Interest Rate Decision and China Retail Sales & Industrial Production tonight

AUDJPY Scalp Chart

AUDJPY Long-bias at Risk Sub 96- BoJ / China Data On Tap

Notes: Although the yen has not been in our sights for some time now, the AUDJPY has come into a critical area of resistance just below the 2014 highs at 96.50. Intra-week RSI divergence followed by a support trigger-break earlier today immediately our bias to the short side of the pair against Fibonacci resistance at 96.06/10. Note that aside from the Aussie employment spike, the pair has continued to hold within the confines of the weekly opening range and a break/close is needed to validate our near-term directional bias.

Bottom line: the rally is vulnerable here at near-term resistance and the risk for further losses remains while below the 96-handle. Look for a break of the weekly low to offer conviction on short exposure with a breach above the June high putting the broader trend back into focus targeting the 2014 high and beyond into 97.50/67. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Technical Relevance

Resistance Target 1

Daily / 30min

96.06/10

1.618% Ext / 50% & 88.6% Retrace

Resistance Target 2

30min

96.23

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

96.50

2014 High

Break Target 1

Daily

96.89

April Low / Pivot

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

97.50/67

100&, 1.618% & 2.618% Extension(s)

Break Target 3

Daily

98.15

61.8% Retracement

Support Target 1

30min

95.76

78.6% Retracement

Support Target 2

30min

95.57

Weekly ORL

Bullish Invalidation

30min

95.38

23.6% Retracement / Swing Low

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

95.10/17

50DMA / 61.8% Retracement

Break Target 2

30min

94.93

38.2% Retracement

Break Target 3

30min

94.75

Soft Support / Pivot

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

94.55/57

50% Retrace / 61.8% Ext

Average True Range

Daily (20)

59

Profit Targets 14-17pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play Heading into NFPs:

  • EURAUD at Fresh 2014 Lows- Reversal Risk High Above 1.4420/40
  • Breakout or Break Down? NZD/USD Eyes Critical Resistance Pre-NFPs
  • USDCAD Risks Reversal Ahead of NFPs- 1.0950 Key Resistance
  • EURUSD Targets 2014 Lows Ahead of ECB/NFP- Opening Ranges in Focus
  • AUDNZD Testing 2014 Range Highs- 1.09 Key Resistance
  • GBPUSD Scalps Selling Rallies into May Range Lows- Key Support 1.6750
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