DailyFX.com -

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Holds August Range Ahead of RBA Interest Rate Decision.

- Gold Marks Failed Closes Above Former Support; Looking for Break & Close Below $1,270.

- USDOLLAR Holds Above Trendline Resistance Even as Bullish RSI Momentum Wanes.

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AUD/USD

AUD/USD Holds August Opening Range Ahead of RBA, 2Q GDP

  • Preserves the opening monthly range ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision & 2Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report.
  • Biggest risk surrounding the RBA meeting will be stronger verbal intervention from Governor Glenn Stevens amid the resilience in the Australian dollar.
  • Although the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long on AUD/USD, the ratio has narrowed as it currently sits at +1.42.

XAU/USD

AUD/USD Holds August Opening Range Ahead of RBA, 2Q GDP

  • Despite the spike into $1,296, the lack of momentum to close above former support around $1,291(38.2% retracement) to $1,292 (38.2% expansion) may highlight a near-term top as the RSI preserves the bearish momentum .
  • Still need a break and close below $1,270 (50.0% expansion) to favor a resumption of the bearish trend carried over from July.
  • Next downside objective comes in around $1,260, the 61.8% retracement of the December advance.

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Read More:

Negative Sentiment in EUR/USD Overstretched?

USD/JPY Triangle, EUR/JPY Inverse H&S Point to Weaker Yen Soon

USDOLLAR

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10633.97

10643.8

10626.95

0.04

59.97%

AUD/USD Holds August Opening Range Ahead of RBA, 2Q GDPAUD/USD Holds August Opening Range Ahead of RBA, 2Q GDP

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Looks as though the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index will continue to close above trendline resistance despite the bearish break on the RSI amid stick inflation.
  • Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) highlights the biggest U.S. event risk as employment is expected to increase another 220K in August while Average Hourly Earnings is expected to climb an annualized 2.1%.
  • Nevertheless, technical outlook continues to highlight the risk for a larger correction as RSI breaks bullish trend & falls back from overbought territory; former resistance around 10,555 (50.0% retracement) to 10,561 (100% expansion) remains in focus.

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Personal Income (JUL)

12:30

0.3%

0.2%

Personal Spending (JUL)

12:30

0.2%

-0.1%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (JUL)

12:30

0.1%

0.1%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (JUL)

12:30

1.6%

1.6%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (JUL)

12:30

0.1%

0.1%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JUL)

12:30

1.5%

1.5%

NAPM-Milwaukee (AUG)

13:00

60.00

59.63

Chicago Purchasing Manager (AUG)

13:45

56.5

64.3

U. of Michigan Confidence (AUG F)

13:55

80.2

82.5

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