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Talking Points

  • AUDUSD opening range takes shape above key support
  • Scalp bias bearish sub-9440
  • Event risk on from China, US & Australia

AUDUSD Daily Chart

AUDUSD July Range Targets Key Support- Shorts Favored Sub 9440

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • AUDUSD reversal off Fibonacci resistance / weekly key outside reversal last week- bearish
  • Monthly opening range set between 9330-9500- bearish invalidation
  • Key support 9307/9337- bullish invalidation
  • Subsequent support targets at 9208/18, 9080
  • Breach above June ORH targets objectives at 9568, 9620
  • Daily momentum divergence / support trigger break- bearish
  • Event Risk Ahead: Chinese Inflation data tonight and FOMC Minutes & Australian Employment tomorrow

AUDUSD 30min Chart

AUDUSD July Range Targets Key Support- Shorts Favored Sub 9440

Notes: Last week’s key outside weekly reversal candle at Fibonacci resistance shifts our broader focus to the downside for the Aussie. With that in mind, there remains some key support barriers the pair would need to get through to validate the reversal, the first of which is the 9308/37 support zone. With the monthly opening range now set, we’ll look for a break of this region to validate our bias heading into the close of July trade with short scalps favored sub-9440.

Bottom line: we’ll look to sell rallies while below the monthly high with only a breach invalidating our medium-term bias. Divergence on the intra-day momentum signature suggests the pair may be vulnerable for a turn-over heading into Asia trade. Caution is warranted heading into the middle of the week with Chinese CPI data tonight and FOMC minutes/Australian employment tomorrow likely to fuel added volatility in the pair. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Technical Relevance

Resistance Target 1

30min

9415

50% Retracement

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

9437/42

61.8% Retrace / June, Nov Swing Highs / (7/2 close)

Break Target 1

30min

9460/66

78.6% Retracement / April High / Weekly R1

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

9498-9504

76.4% Retracement / July ORH

Break Target 3

Daily / 30min

9568/75

1.618% Extension / Weekly R2

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

9618/32

50% & 88.6% Retracement(s) / Oct 23rd Close

Support Target 1

30min

9395

38.2% Retrace / Asia High

Support Target 2

30min

9369

23.6% Retracement

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

9337/40

Weekly, July ORL / 61.8% Retrace / TL Sup / 50DMA

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

9321

61.8% Retrace / June Swing Low

Break Target 2

Daily

9308

100% Ext / July 2013 High (9317)

Break Target 3

30min

9271

78.6% Retracement

Break Target 4

30min

9242

88.6% Retracement

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min

9207/17

61.8% & 50% Retrace / 78.6% Ext / April, May Low

Average True Range

Daily (20)

58

Profit Targets 15-17pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

  • EURUSD July Opening Range Play- Shorts Favored Sub 1.37
  • AUDCHF Rebounds Off Key Support- Longs Favored Above 8360
  • GBPJPY Testing Key Inflection Zone- Shorts at Risk Above 172.70
  • GBPCAD Scalps Target Weekly Range- Bullish Bias at Risk Sub 1.8480
  • GBPAUD Scalps Favor Buying Dips Post June Range Break
  • GBPNZD Weekly Opening Range Play- 1.96 Resistance in Focus
  • AUDJPY Long-bias at Risk Sub 96- BoJ / China Data On Tap
  • EURAUD at Fresh 2014 Lows- Reversal Risk High Above 1.4420/40
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