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Talking Points

  • GBPCAD preserves weekly opening range below trendline resistance
  • Broader outlook constructive above 1.8228
  • Event risk on from Canada tomorrow

GBPCAD Daily Chart

GBPCAD Scalps Target Weekly Range- Bullish Bias at Risk Sub 1.8480

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • GBPCAD holding well defined range just below Fibonacci / TL resistance ~1.8467/82
  • Resistance-break targets objectives at 1.8536/46, 1.8603 & 1.8701/30
  • Support at 1.8383, channel support & 1.8228- bullish invalidation
  • Daily RSI momentum trigger break last week- bullish
  • Event Risk Ahead: Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Retail Sales tomorrow

GBPCAD 30min Chart

GBPCAD Scalps Target Weekly Range- Bullish Bias at Risk Sub 1.8480

Notes: The topside bias seems at risk here below trendline resistance dating back to the March high. The weekly opening range remains intact just below this level and the focus remains on a break of this region to validate a near-term directional bias. A topside breach targets the upper-bounds of the consolidation pattern the pair has held since the February low.

Bottom line: the broader bias remains constructive but a near-term break sub-1.84 could fuel a correction into channel support. Note that Canadian inflation and retail sales data tomorrow morning could offer a catalyst for a break of this range. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Technical Relevance

Bearish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.8467/82

Weekly ORH / 78.6% Ext / 78.6% Retrace

Break Target 1

30min

1.8505

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Break Target 2

Daily / 30min

1.8531/46

100% Ext / 78.6% & 88.6% Ext(s)

Break Target 3

30min

1.8586

May High

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

1.8604

88.6% Retracement

Break Target 5

Daily / 30min

1.8668

2014 High

Bullish Invalidation

Daily / 30min

1.8384 – 1.84

Weekly ORL / 50% & 61.8% Retracement(s)

Break Target 1

Daily / 30min

1.8336/42

50% Retracement / 38.2% Extension

Break Target 2

30min

1.8317

38.2% Retrace / ~Channel Support

Break Target 3

30min

1.8295

23.6% Extension / Channel

Break Target 4

Daily / 30min

1.8228/35

61.8% & 23.6% Retracement(s)

Average True Range

Daily (20)

90

Profit Targets 22-24pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play Heading into NFPs:

  • GBPAUD Scalps Favor Buying Dips Post June Range Break
  • GBPNZD Weekly Opening Range Play- 1.96 Resistance in Focus
  • AUDJPY Long-bias at Risk Sub 96- BoJ / China Data On Tap
  • EURAUD at Fresh 2014 Lows- Reversal Risk High Above 1.4420/40
  • Breakout or Break Down? NZD/USD Eyes Critical Resistance Pre-NFPs
  • USDCAD Risks Reversal Ahead of NFPs- 1.0950 Key Resistance
  • EURUSD Targets 2014 Lows Ahead of ECB/NFP- Opening Ranges in Focus
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